MLB Best Bets for Friday, July 29, 2022

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Yesterday was an off/odd day. I had the under 12 for the Rockies and Dodgers game and the Dodgers scored 13 runs by themselves in a shutout. The Royals and Yankees game I was correct about thinking there was a ton of value on the Royals, we pushed one and lost one. Then the other game I was correct about the under but wrong about the winning side. We end up going 1-2-1. Not good enough.

Mets vs. Marlins

If I were to offer you plus money to back the best pitcher in the National League this year, you’d probably take it, right? Well, that’s what I’m supporting today. Sandy Alcantara is going for the Marlins and he has been phenomenal this year. This will be the fourth start for the Mets, the Marlins have won two of them. The second start was at home, like this one, and was one of his worst starts of the season. But, what I like about this is that Chris Bassitt is his opponent. Bassitt has been fine this year, but the road has not been as kind to him as he holds a 4.67 ERA on the road. This is also the fourth start of the year for Bassitt against the Marlins. He has a 3.66 ERA against them this year. I’m going to take Alcantara almost every time he is offered at plus money. Today is one of those days. Marlins +104.

Cardinals vs. Nationals

Miles Mikolas has been awesome, but he has struggled on the road – at least in comparison to his home performance. He’s been very dominant in night games, which is what this is. Anibal Sanchez is back in the majors and he has two starts under his belt. He’s only gone two games and he has allowed seven earned runs in 10 innings. This one doesn’t need to be too complicated. The Cardinals are the better team, they have the better pitcher, and they will win by more than two runs. Cardinals run line -102.

Athletics vs. White Sox

I’m still not convinced on Lance Lynn being back to form. He had a great outing against the Giants at the start of the month and then followed up with three straight bad starts. And, when I say bad starts, he allowed 19 runs in 14 innings. Then, in his last start, he threw a beautiful game of six innings and no earned runs allowed. My expectation at this point is something in the middle happening. James Kaprielian is pitching pretty well right now. He’s gotten a solid 22 innings this month and allowed just five earned runs. I think the White Sox are a better team, and I do think Lynn is a better pitcher, but at +160, I have to play the A’s in this one.

Written by David Troy

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