MLB Best Bets for Friday, July 1, 2022

We go just 1-2 yesterday, but it is one of those days where I felt happy that I wasn’t too far off at least. Now, that doesn’t put money in our bank, but it helps to know I’m reading the games fairly well. Anyway, we can go for a sweep today.

Padres vs. Dodgers

Look, until this really starts to not hit, I’m going to continue to play it each and every time. The book has already adjusted a bit, and it has already been acknowledged that Blake Snell is a flaming pile of garbage, so the moneyline is not a play today. But, here is where we are headed: Padres team total under 3 at -102 (FanDuel). Tony Gonsolin has started 14 times this season. There are exactly three games where teams have scored three or more runs against the Dodgers in those games. That means there are 11 games where opponents have scored two or less. He was pissed he was taken out last game (a game we hit for the under on Braves team total and multi-unit on the Dodgers winning). I’ll ride this until we can’t.

Cardinals vs. Phillies

Don’t sleep on Miles Mikolas. The guy is 10th in ERA and has been dealing all season. He’s been strong on the road, posting a 2.53 ERA, and has had a beautiful June. He has been flirting with disaster a bit, allowing 10 walks and 36 hits in 42.2 innings. Overall, Phillies hitters are batting about .250 against him. What really helps, in this case, is that the Cardinals are facing Bailey Falter, a youngster that is looking to stick in the rotation, but kind of struggling. Falter has three starts under his belt and has allowed six earned runs in 12.2 innings. It isn’t terrible by any means, but it isn’t great. I think this is a good game for the Cardinals. I’ll take them on the moneyline at -135 on DraftKings.

White Sox vs. Giants

Lance Lynn is back for the White Sox, but he isn’t the Lance Lynn that was a Cy Young candidate the last two years. Lynn has returned and allowed 11 earned runs in 16 innings as he tries to regain his form for the club. I lean towards the White Sox taking this game, but the over is a better play here. Lynn has just given up too many runs, and Alex Cobb isn’t dominating opponents. Cobb has a 4.78 ERA at home, and even worse, he has a 6.66 ERA during night games. He’s had three consecutive games of just two earned runs allowed, but in two of those three games he only made it into the fourth inning. I’ll take the over 7.5.

Written by David Troy

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