MLB Best Best for Thursday, September 2, 2021
Last night we lost two and won one. Neither of our losses were really close, so I need to do better than that. Let’s look to rebound today.
Marlins vs. Mets
Sandy Alcantara is starting for the Marlins today, at least that’s what I’m hearing. Everything in this paragraph could go down the tubes if Alcantara isn’t, but that’s how I am basing this play. Alcantara is not nearly as effective as a road starter. He has an ERA in the low four’s that creeps up to the mid-fours in night starts. He has yet to face the Mets this year, but does have experience with them, giving up 27 hits in 103 at-bats. Only eight of those have gone for extra bases, though. For the Mets, Carlos Carrasco is pitching and he is coming off of by far his best start of the season – seven innings with just two earned runs allowed. Perhaps some of his rust is finally coming off. He did face the Marlins once this season, allowing two runs in 4.1 innings. I’m going to play the over 7.5 at -114.
Indians vs. Royals
Guys and gals, if Triston McKenzie continues to pitch the way he has the last month, the Indians may very well have found another arm to build their team around. In August, he went 28 innings in four starts and surrendered only 6 earned runs over four starts. That’s really good, especially considering he only allowed two walks all month too. Control the ball and keeping people off the basepaths is a great way to head towards victory lane. He is also familiar with Royals hitters, holding them to only 8 hits over 66 at-bats. Mike Minor has never been a superb pitcher, but he has been serviceable, and I’d say the same thing about him over the last month. He’s allowed a few runs but gone five or so innings to at least keep the game in reach. Indians hitters are batting a respectable .248 against him over 54 at-bats. This season, he has faced the Indians twice, giving up 9 earned runs in 9.1 innings. I’m fine playing the Indians to win on the moneyline at -106. I’d sprinkle the run line too, but don’t get carried away (Indians -1.5 for +145).
Braves vs. Rockies
Sometimes you’ve just got to throw who you have. That’s how I feel the Rockies are with Chi Chi Gonzalez. He hasn’t been good this season, he has a 6.08 ERA and has allowed 17 home runs and 24 walks compared to only 54 strikeouts. He is being hit the first time through the lineup… and the third, the second he actually is a bit more effective, but I don’t know if he will last to make it through the lineup a second time. He’s only pitched four innings in his previous two starts combined. Touki Toussaint has been fine for the Braves, but he has been much more effective on the road. He has a 2.24 ERA in just four road starts. Obviously, Coors Field is different, but this, coupled with the Rockies never facing him, and him posting a .206 average against him the first time through the lineup, I like the Braves chances. My play for the game is this Braves to be winning after three innings at +100. I think Toussaint holds the Rockies down for at least the first few innings and the Braves score off of Gonzalez.