162 games and it all comes down to this one game. The Yankees and Red Sox both ended the season with 92 wins and fighting for the opportunity to face another AL East team, the Tampa Bay Rays. Let’s take a look at the game and any bets that might stand out.
The game will be played at Fenway, but unfortunately, I feel like that’s all that is going for the Red Sox in this one. JD Martinez, arguably the best Red Sox hitter, is out for this game. Their best pitcher, Chris Sale, had to pitch in their last game so that they could be sure to make this game. And, they have to face the Yankees best pitcher. Over the season series, the Red Sox won 10 of the 19 games between the teams. The Yankees have won the last six matchups though.
Gerrit Cole pitches for the Yankees, this season he had a 3.23 ERA and is one of the likely finalists for the Cy Young award. Specifically, against the Red Sox, he has started four games, allowing 13 runs in 22 innings. 12 of those 13 runs came during his starts at Fenway Park. This wasn’t just the result of one bad game though, he has allowed at least three runs in each of the three starts at Fenway.
Nathan Eovaldi throws for the Red Sox, and he too had a pretty good season, ending with a 3.75 ERA. Against the Yankees, he has started six times and allowed 15 runs over 34 innings. Eovaldi has been about a full run better at home than on the road. Both Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo have hit Eovaldi pretty well and could do damage today.
I’m taking the Yankees to win the game. I think they have the better bullpen, the better starting pitcher, and better hitters right now. Of course, anything can happen in these games and it should be a good one. But, getting Cole at -126 is good enough for me.
Cole has a strikeout line of 7.5 today. He is hitting over that against the Red Sox 50% of the time in his four starts. The other two he had six strikeouts. The concern is that he hasn’t struck out more than seven hitters in his last five starts. The juice is pretty high, but -142 for under 7.5 strikeouts isn’t bad.