Geoff Clark
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The New York Mets (1-0) took down the reigning NL Cy Young, Sandy Alcantara, and his Miami Marlins (0-1) on Opening Day. Mets-Marlins play the 2nd of their 4-game series Friday at loanDepot park in Miami and 1st pitch is 6:40 p.m. ET.
Max Scherzer earned a win Thursday and Brandon Nimmo was NYM’s standout hitter with three RBIs in 5-3 win over Miami. Last season, the Mets were 14-6 straight up (SU) vs. the Marlins.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
I guess where me and the market differ here is on the starting pitching matchup. The Mets are sending out LHP David Peterson Friday and the Marlins give LHP Jesus Luzardo the nod.
Peterson is a 1st-round pick from 2017 that bounced last season after a disappointing 2021 who I’m high on entering 2023. His contact, swinging-strike and chase rates all improved year over year.
According to Statcast, Peterson’s K-rate is 11% better vs. active Marlins hitters than Luzardo against current Mets batters (31.0-20.0%).
In 2022, Peterson was 1-1 in two starts against Miami with a 2.50 ERA and 23/5 K/BB rate. Luzardo was 0-1 in two starts vs. the Mets with a 6.50 ERA and a 9/5 K/BB rate.
Miami’s lineup was awful vs. left-handed pitching last season. The Marlins were dead-last in K-rate (27.7%), wRC+ (71) and wOBA (.265), according to FanGraphs.
The heart of NYM’s order mashes lefties. Mets RF Starling Marte, SS Francisco Lindor, 1B Pete Alonso, LF Mark Canha and 3B Eduardo Escobar all have at least a 115 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching.
Finally, this is just too good of a price to pass up considering how well the Mets played in Miami last season. NYM was 8-2 SU and on the run line in 2022 in Miami with a +2.8 margin of victory and +35.3% return on investment.
BET: Mets (-115) moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -130
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