Mets Cover Run Line vs. Nationals

Nationals vs. Mets, 7:10 ET

There were two teams I was very off about this year: the Tigers and the Mets. The Tigers were terrible and I expected them to be competitive. The Mets were really good and I didn’t expect their offense to be good at all. Now, the Mets are headed to the playoffs, and the Tigers are once again headed to another offseason of question marks.

Paolo Espino is pitching for the Nationals. The poor guy has had a rough year. He has 41 appearances and 18 starts on the season. He has an ugly 0-8 record, but he hasn’t been a terrible pitcher. I usually think anything above four is bad, and it typically is. But, Espino has at least been pretty consistent overall with a low-to-mid-four ERA in just about every situation on the year. I also don’t think that the Nationals are doing him any favors having him start then go back to the pen and then start again. A team that he has had some success against though is the Mets. In 6.1 innings (no starts, just relief appearances) he has allowed just one earned run.

Taijuan Walker is pitching for the Mets and has been pretty awesome on the year. He is posting a 3.59 ERA and has a 12-5 record. The Mets have two starters that are definitely going to pitch multiple times in a series, but Walker or Chirs Bassitt should get a chance. He had a tough August and rebounded a bit in September, but it still hasn’t been great. Not that the Nationals are a really good team or anything, but Walker did pitch well against them in his one start, a seven-inning outing that saw him allow just three hits and no earned runs. This will likely be a tuneup for Walker and the Mets, but I still see him being able to pitch well and show he is in good form going into the playoffs.

This isn’t ideal, but I think the best look here is to take the run line. The Mets are likely not going to win the division, but they will still be the top Wild Card spot. I think it makes sense to play the Mets run line here.

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Written by David Troy

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