Mavericks, Luka Are A Mismatch For Pelicans On Tuesday

The Dallas Mavericks (1-1) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (2-1) game Tuesday at the Smoothie King Center is eerily similar to how the Mavs match up with the Memphis Grizzlies.

Dallas beat the brakes off Memphis 137-96 on Saturday in a dominant performance from Mavs superstar Luka Doncic. Luka erupted for a 21-point 1st quarter vs. the Grizzlies and Dallas outperformed Memphis in all “four factors”.

Pelicans’ All-Stars Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson will miss Tuesday’s game as well as their primary defensive wing, Herb Jones.

Their injury issues played a role in the Pelicans losing to the Utah Jazz 122-121 in overtime Sunday as 8.5-point home favorites.

NOLA’s injuries will be an even bigger factor Tuesday vs. Dallas because this is not a good matchup for the Pelicans.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline (ML): Mavericks (-215), Pelicans (+185)
  • Against the spread (ATS): MAVERICKS -6 (-105), Pelicans -6 (-115)
  • Total (O/U) — 218.5 — O: -110, U: -110

New Orleans’ injury report

Ingram’s absence is the biggest factor in my Mavericks-Pelicans handicap. He’s not held in the same regard as elite NBA wings such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jayson Tatum.

However, here’s a look at Ingram’s on/off numbers in 2021-22:

New Orleans Pelicans F Brandon Ingram's on/off adjusted net rating according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
New Orleans Pelicans F Brandon Ingram’s on/off adjusted net rating courtesy of CleaningTheGlass.com.

Ingram is New Orleans’ best facilitator and shotmaker. Zion is one of the most physically dominant players in the NBA. Jones’s absence leaves no one to defend Luka who was going to ball out either way but no Jones is a disaster.

Also, Luka goes off in the Big Easy. In Doncic’s last five visits to New Orleans, Luka is averaging 33.8 points on 70.1% true shooting (.565/.470/.795) with 8.0 assists and 9.8 rebounds.

Furthermore, styles make fights and the Mavericks don’t have weaknesses that the Pelicans generally exploit.

The matchup favors Dallas

Like the Grizzlies, the Pelicans feast on converting turnovers and offensive rebounds into points. But, the Mavs don’t turn the ball over and finish off defensive possessions with rebounds. This helps explain Dallas’s 3-1 overall and ATS records vs. NOLA in 2021-22.

Without turnovers and offensive rebounds, the Pelicans will be forced to execute better than the Mavs in the half-court. Well, Dallas was 2nd in points per 100 half-court plays ran last season (per CleaningTheGlass.com) and New Orleans was 27th.

Finally, this has been a profitable spot for the Mavs since Luka’s rookie season (2018). Over that span, Dallas is 10-5 ATS vs. New Orleans with a +4.4 ATS margin. Also, the Mavs are 28-13-1 ATS as road favorites of four or more points since 2018.

BET: Mavericks -6 (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -7

The Dallas Mavericks are road favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook when they visit the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center Tuesday.
The Dallas Mavericks are road favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook when they visit the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center Tuesday.

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Written by Geoff Clark

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