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“What’s my ‘best bet’ in Week 1 of college football,” you ask? The SEATTLE MARINERS -1.5 (+105) at the Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-125) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Seattle waxed Cleveland 6-1 in the series opener Friday at Progressive Field. Actually, the Mariners lead the season series with the Guardians 4-1 and have a plus-11 run differential in those meetings.
However, Seattle will put away this 3-game set Saturday because it has a 3-phase edge. The Mariners have a much better starter on the hill, a more productive lineup vs. the opposing pitcher’s handedness and a better-rested bullpen.
Betting Deets (DraftKings)
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners (-165), Guardians (+140)
- Run Line (RL): Mariners -1.5 (+105), Guardians +1.5 (-125)
The Mariners start red-hot reigning AL Cy Young award-winning LHP Robbie Ray (11-8, 3.58 ERA). The Guardians counter with rookie RHP Xzavion Curry (0-0, 5.40 ERA).
Last month, Ray was 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and a 44/11 K/BB rate in five starts. He pitched 7-scoreless innings Sunday vs. the Guardians with seven K’s and 0 BB’s, earning a win in Seattle’s 4-0 victory.
Furthermore, Cleveland’s lineup is awful vs. left-handed pitching. The Guardians have the 3rd-worst wRC+ (81), 2nd-worst wOBA (.280), worst ISO (.180), are 22nd in BB/K rate (0.35) and 25th in hard-hit rate (28.0%) against lefties, per FanGraphs.
On the other hand, Curry is making his 2nd career start and it’s a tough spot for a rookie. The Guardians are in the heat of a division race and only 1-game atop the AL Central.
The Mariners are just 3.5 games ahead of the surging Baltimore Orioles for the 3rd and final AL Wild Card berth with the Toronto Blue Jays sandwiched in between.
More importantly, Seattle’s lineup is solid against righties. The Mariners rank 10th in wRC+ (104), 12th in ISO (.158) and 11th in BB/K rate (0.40) vs. right-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs. Also, the Guardians are going to need Curry to eat up mad innings since their bullpen is fatigued.
‘Better Spot’ For The Mariners
The Guardians are 2-4 RL as home underdogs vs. lefties this season and losing those games 5.33-2.33 on average. But, the Mariners are 7-4 RL as road favorites of -140 or greater with an average final margin of 5.91-3.64. Seattle is 14-10 RL as road favorites and Cleveland is 12-14 RL as home ‘dogs.
Finally, sharp action has steamed the Mariners’ ML from a -125 opener up to the current number. On top of that, Seattle’s RL is down to even-money on the consensus market, according to Pregame.com.
BET the SEATTLE MARINERS -1.5 (+105) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
- A $100 bet on the Mariners -1.5 (+105) earns a $105 profit if Seattle wins by at least 2 runs.
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