Making Sense Of Bengals-Chiefs Mid-Week Line Movement
If you are like me and spend way too much time looking at the betting lines for the upcoming NFL Conference championships then you already know what I'm talking about.
But, if you don't the line for the Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs game has been going crazy mid-week. Cincy were 2.5-point underdogs on the world opener, per Pregame.com, but has been steamed up to road favorites.
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines in the fourth quarter of an AFC divisional playoff game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Over the span of minutes Tuesday, the Bengals went up to -2.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook then back down to -1 before settling at Cincinnati -1.5.
The legal U.S. sportsbooks are clearly following the sharp off-shore sportsbooks' lead. Per DraftKings, a vast majority of the action and money is on Cincinnati at the time of writing. Yet the line is moving.
So who or what could be moving the line in Bengals-Chiefs? Obviously, the first guess is someone with connections could be discovering injury news for Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes.
Does that mean someone else with other connections thinks all the Mahomes-injury commotion is just noise? My read is people are just gambling.
Sports betting syndicates and professionals most likely disagree about how much Mahomes' high ankle sprain will impact his performance.
The Bengals dump-trucked the Bills in the AFC divisional round and the market had Buffalo as the highest power-rated team all season.
Also, Cincy and Joe Burrow have been a cash cow for bettors since 2021. They have covered 17 of the past 18 games vs. non-divisional opponents, including the playoffs, since losing at home to the 49ers in Week 14 of last season.
More importantly, Burrow is 3-0 against the spread vs. Kansas City and Mahomes, including a victory in the 2022 AFC title game.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow and coach Zac Taylor pose with the Lamar Hunt Trophy after Cincy defeated the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
If the Bengals close as a favorite, it would be the second time the Chiefs have been home underdogs with Mahomes as the starter.
The first was Week 6 earlier this season when Kansas City was 2.5-point home underdogs vs. Bills, who the Bengals clobbered last week.
Generally speaking, a contrarian mindset is a good starting place when betting on sports. However, I cannot endorse fading the red-hot Bengals at this point in the week.
Check back later and I'll have a pick on this Bengals-Chiefs AFC Championship Game. As for now, let's just hope Mahomes will be good to go Sunday since this is could be an epic showdown.