Videos by OutKick
Dodgers vs. Marlins, 6:40 ET
I was able to just break even yesterday. The Cubs were able to take down the Giants in an afternoon game, but the evening game… that didn’t go very well. Look, a loss is a loss, but sometimes you are wrong, and then other times you are WRONG. Yesterday, I was WRONG. The Twins absolutely obliterated the Guardians in a game that I thought the Guardians would steal. The Guardians were plus money, so we ended up just breaking even. Today, we can get right in a game between the Dodgers and Marlins.
The Dodgers have been the best team in all of baseball since the All-Star Break. However, they did just get rocked by the best team in baseball, the Braves as they lost three of four games. After being somewhat average in the first half of the season, the Dodgers turned it on and were able to collectively knock the crap out of the ball lately. They’ve been averaging almost six runs a game for a month. Their pitching staff isn’t exactly great right now and I do think it will be their downfall. Julio Urias is now charged with domestic violence and Tony Gonsolin is probably not going to pitch again this year. They do still have their most reliable pitcher, Clayton Kershaw, and he is going for the Dodgers tonight. They have treated Kershaw with a bit of a “kids gloves” approach since his return from the injured list as he has gone just 17 innings over four starts and they aren’t letting him throw more than five innings. He’s hasn’t even thrown 80 pitches in any of the starts, but the Dodgers are 4-0 in his starts and are 8-1 since June in his outings. Marlins hitters are just 8-for-53 against Kershaw in their careers.
Miami is still in the playoff race. I really doubt that they make the playoffs, but even if they don’t, they have to feel pretty solid as a team that they’ve accomplished staying alive this long. The Marlins came into this season with very low expectations and at least in my mind they’ve exceeded them. They did have a great Labor Day weekend as they took four games from the Nationals. Is that a huge accomplishment? Not really, but the Nationals have put up more of a fight than most of the teams that are tanking this year. Jesus Luzardo takes the hill for the fish today as they look to keep this modest winning streak alive. At home, Luzardo sports a 3.15 ERA. He had a great July with a 1.93 ERA but stumbled through August a bit before ending it strongly. His first three August starts, he allowed 16 earned runs over 12.1 innings. In his two most recent starts he’s allowed just three hits over 12 innings and no earned runs. Dodgers hitters have been pretty solid against him with a .306 average.
I think both starters should put up zeros on the scoreboard. Luzardo has only two games of a streak to build on, but Kershaw has been very good. The Dodgers probably have the edge in this game, but I think I’d take the Marlins to win if I had to. I’ll play under 7.5 though as my official play. I’d expect a fairly low score through five innings, and hopefully, neither bullpen has a blowup.
For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024