Low Total Should Allow For Over

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Yankees vs. Twins, 7:40 ET

Yesterday wasn’t great for me. One game I did get a win in was the Twins and it was a +140 winner. I played that Sonny Gray would have a phenomenal game against the Yankees. Gray is looking very sharp but the rest of the Twins need some work in my opinion. Baseball is all about spots and this is a good one for us.

Yes, the Yankees lost the game yesterday, but today they can bounce back with a better pitcher on the hill. They could only score one run yesterday as they battled against Gray, but this isn’t an offense that you can expect to keep down for an extended period of time. Well, judging on their team statistics, maybe you can. To this point in the year, the Yankees have a .225 average and 94 runs through 23 games. They are lower than the Twins in most statistical categories. Their players, and payroll, are too deep to produce at this low of a level. Most of my trust in this one goes to Nestor Cortes. As far as pitching goes, the Yankees have three that I like and one (Rodon) is on the injured list. Cortes is throwing to a 3.09 ERA. He has only made one road start on the year and went 5.1 innings and allowed two earned runs. Matching up with the Twins shouldn’t be an issue as he went seven innings and allowed two solo home runs to them in a start just about two weeks ago.

Nestor Cortes #65 of the New York Yankees is a great pitcher, but is hittable. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

Yankees Face Ryan For Second Time In Two Weeks

The Twins matchup with the Yankees is slightly better than just the batting statistics that I mentioned before. However, on paper, if you’re looking at the two squads, I don’t think there is much question. You’d want to take the Yankees roster. As you’re aware, the game is not played on paper. The Twins took the first game and have another pitcher that is off to a solid start to the year. Joe Ryan is pitching very well in his first four starts. He has won all four games, and has only allowed 15 hits over 25 innings. In his one home start, he allowed four earned runs over six innings. He has been the victim of the home run ball this season with four allowed. Four dingers allowed accounts for just over a quarter of the hits he has allowed and homers are the Yankees specialty… normally at least.

The Yankees struggled against Ryan when they faced him in Yankee Stadium. He went seven innings and allowed one solo home run while striking out 10 hitters. I don’t expect him to be quite a sharp this time out but I do think this line is too low on the total. 6.5 is usually reserved for the top tier of pitchers. I’m taking the over here.

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Written by David Troy

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