Low Scoring Expected in Playoff Type Matchup

Mets vs. Braves, 7:08 ET

The game of the week, the Sunday Night Baseball matchup, and the final game between the Braves and Mets. While neither team will win the division tonight, and both will make the playoffs, this feels like it is a bigger game than it really is. The Mets have already tossed their aces at the Braves, and the Braves have combated with two great ones of their own. Fun series, I’m excited to see how it ends.

Chris Bassitt pitches for the Mets. He doesn’t have the name or allure that Max Scherzer or Jacob deGrom have, but make no mistake, he is a key reason that the Mets are headed to the playoffs. On the season, Bassitt has a 3.27 ERA. More of his success has come at home, but he still has been reliable as a road starter. In 13 starts, he has a 3.68 ERA, but is giving up more hits to batters. August was great for him, and September was solid with a 2.93 ERA, allowing 10 runs in 30.2 innings. He’s only had two starts against the Braves this season and both were fine. He has allowed four earned runs to them in 13 innings. One of those was on the road and he went six innings with just a solo home run allowed.

Charlie Morton came into the Braves organization as one of the better under-the-radar pitchers. He was on Tampa’s World Series team and pitched well there and in Houston. But, he still wasn’t a guy that most would consider an ace or anything. He’s a reliable starter, much like Bassitt, that can get guys out when you need him to. At home, he has been very good with a 2.88 home ERA and almost 30 more strikeouts in the same number of innings. Despite the Braves winning four of his five September starts, he really struggled. He allowed six earned runs in his most recent outing against Philadelphia and he had two starts that he allowed four earned runs in. What that doesn’t tell is is that all three of those starts (so 14 of his 16 earned runs allowed in September) were on the road. His two home starts saw him cover 11 innings and allow just two earned runs.

The Braves are probably on the right side here. This is a game I might be willing to take them on at -140. That’s about as high of a juiced play in baseball as I’ll ever play straight. It is very hard to be profitable playing high numbers. My preference though, and what I will play is the first five innings of the game under 4 runs at -115. I think this is reasonable and in a playoff-type matchup this is a good look for us.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024

Written by David Troy

Leave a Reply