Low Score Expected in Florida

Cubs vs. Marlins, 6:40 ET

Finally, we had a really nice day yesterday with a 3-0 sweep. There are only about 17 days of regular season games remaining. That means we have about 50 plays left in what has been a fantastic baseball season. Even with the mediocre week I had previously, we were able to capture a lot of that back with the sweep yesterday. Still, this is a “what have you done for me lately” field, and today is a new day.

Wade Miley is pitching for the Cubs. This is his eighth team in his 11th season and despite him having only six starts on the year, this might be one of the best campaigns he’s ever had. He returned from the injured list in September and has posted two straight starts. In those two outings, he has covered nine innings and only three earned runs. The Marlins hitters have only had 28 at-bats against Miley, but they’ve had six hits, three of which are doubles. This seems like a really good opportunity for the Cubs to steal a game late in the season. Here is one word of caution though, at the deadline the Cubs traded away virtually all of their talent in the bullpen. There are still some serviceable arms, and they aren’t going to allow runs every time they step out there. However, in situations like this, you tend to try to focus on the first five innings.

A pleasant surprise for the Marlins this season is Edward Cabrera. Cabrera has 11 starts under this belt this year. He has been in the rotation since August and only had one bad start in those last eight outings. That was against the Dodgers, and let’s face is, there are very few pitchers that don’t have bad starts against that monstrous lineup. Cabrera has faced the Cubs, he did it on the road, where he seems to pitch better, for the most part. In that game, he went five innings and allowed no hits. He struck out eight in that game while walking three. Here is an idea of what you can expect from the Marlins starter: five innings, one or two runs. Is that a guarantee? Of course not. I do think it is a reasonable expectation though.

The total in this game is already posted fairly low – that’s what happens with two teams that don’t have great hitting. Combine that with two pitchers that should be in a good situation and pitching well, and it does explain the line. I’m personally going to play the under 7 runs at -120. The first five-inning total is just far too low. If I had to play the game, I’d take the Cubs. I think their lineup is better. I’m passing on a side though.

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Written by David Troy

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