Look Towards the Total in Houston vs. Memphis

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Houston vs. Memphis, 7:30 ET

This hasn’t been a great college football season for me. It isn’t like I’m down a bunch of units or anything like that, more that I haven’t had a really sustained run or identified weak links in the lines yet. Hoping that changes quickly as we are already on week six of the college football season.

Houston comes into this game with a 2-3 record looking to even that up. Of their three losses, two were likely expected with losses to Kansas and to Texas Tech. They were able to hold their own in both of those games. Kansas looks like a good offensive team and Houston was doing a decent job of trying to match that output. They took Texas Tech to double overtime before finally falling. Then last week, Houston lost to a pretty good Tulane team by three points. Houston is led by their passing game which features Clayton Tune slinging the ball across the field. I really like the way he has played this year and his connection with receiver Nate Dell. They change the pace a bit with running backs Brandon Campbell and Tazhawn Henry. Houston should be able to keep their pace going in this game against a Memphis team allowing 400 yards per game to opponents.

Memphis is 4-1 and can move to 5-1 with a home victory tonight. Unlike Houston, they really haven’t played in any close games. After they were blown out by Mississippi State, they won the next four contests and the closest was a 10-point game. Houston has had the tougher road to get to this game, but Memphis shouldn’t be overlooked just because of their schedule. Stacking these teams up next to each other, they are allowing and producing at a very similar rate. Both allow around 400 yards to opponents and put up about 400 yards of offensive production. It might come down to another overtime game (this would be the fourth for Houston already).

I am not touching a side in this game. Although I think Houston might be worth taking the points, I am instead going to play the over. It seems a bit low for teams that average 30+ points per game, but I think it is likely that we get a faster-paced game and some deep shots downfield that will help get this total to the finish line. Play over 57.5 in the game.

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Written by David Troy

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