Look for Runs in Blue Jays vs. Mariners

Mariners vs. Blue Jays

The Mariners pounced on the Blue Jays early in the opening game and coasted to a victory. Alek Manoah had the worst start of his season and that crowd I’ve thought so much about was taken out of the game very early. Can the Blue Jays even the series up and push to a pivotal and decisive game 3?

If they are going to do it, it will need to be against their former teammate and Cy Young winner, Robbie Ray. Ray had a good season for the Mariners, but not quite as good as the one he had for the Blue Jays a year prior. The Mariners also have lost the last five games that Ray has started. I correctly called his most recent game against the Athletics at home and we collected a +225 victory on that one. He’s actually been worse on the road than he has at home, too. Over the year, he had a 4.69 ERA in road starts and allowed four more earned runs on the road in roughly 32 fewer innings. He did face the Blue Jays once this season, it was a good start – six innings, three hits, and just one solo home run accounting for the runs. That was a home start though. I don’t expect the same success.

Kevin Gausman is the starter for the Blue Jays. I’m not sure this is an ideal spot for him as he performed admirably on the road but really struggled at home. When not in Canada, he was a 2.30 ERA pitcher. But, in Toronto, that balloons up to a 4.57 ERA. He’s allowed double the home runs at home, and allowed 12 more hits at home in 13 fewer innings. Still, this is the type of game that Toronto brought him in for. They need to win this game and he needs to be an Ace pitcher. The good news also is that in three of his last four outings at home, they were decent or good starts. He only had a tune-up against the Red Sox and it wasn’t pretty, but it was fine. He also faced Seattle at home once this year and allowed two earned runs in five innings.

This is a game the Blue Jays need, and luckily, they get Ray at his worst. I am seeing a 3.5 for the first five innings. I think both of these starters are in a bad spot. Unfortunately, I expected the Blue Jays to win game 1 so my over 2.5 games for the series might be dead, I won’t risk it on the moneyline here. Instead, I’m taking over 3.5 through five innings.  

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Written by David Troy

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