Line too Low in Chiefs vs. Colts

Chiefs vs. Colts, 1 ET

Sometimes you look at a line and think it is suspicious. Other times you think it is a mistake. What you’re typically looking for in something like football is if you trust your numbers, and you see something that doesn’t align, that’s where you want to play it. That’s what the case is for me in the Chiefs vs. Colts game.

The Colts have looked like pure crap to start the year. I expected so much more out of them, but maybe new quarterback Matt Ryan is washed up. Maybe it just will take two or three weeks to get moving. Whatever the case is, them starting 0-1-1 on the year with two matchups that should’ve been easy is not ideal. Jonathan Taylor has been fine, and they are feeding him, so that isn’t the issue. The issue really has been Ryan. He has four interceptions in two games with just one touchdown to go with it. He also has been sacked seven times. The only uncertainty about that one is I don’t know if it is because the line can’t protect him, or if it is because he is taking too much time to read the defense due to a lack of connection with his receivers.

The Chiefs are coming into this game with two victories. While the final score looks close, the game against the Chargers wasn’t really at risk of being a loss. The Chiefs defense looks significantly better than I thought it would. Also, the new look offense seems to be doing pretty well overall, too. They have involved their running backs more than normal, or at least it seems that way. They have three good ones on the team, so getting them into space is optimal. An efficient running game helps open the field for Mahomes. Teams obviously need to respect his arm. I am curious to see how much JuJu Smith-Schuster is used moving forward. He wasn’t very involved against the Chargers, but he didn’t need to be either. It would be nice to see him stretch the field a little bit though and see if he and Mahomes could make some connections deep.

I think the Chiefs are a touchdown better than the Colts, even on the road. I don’t expect the Colts to just roll over and die, but I don’t think they are better than Kansas City. Mahomes gets the Chiefs in position to score enough that this shouldn’t really be an issue, and the Colts offense is in such a disarray to me that I think the Chiefs should easily cover the -5.5 at -115. Maybe it is a trap, but I think this is just a line that’s set too low.

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Written by David Troy

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