Lakers Are Getting Too Much Hype: BET Warriors In Game 1

The reigning champion 6-seed Golden State Warriors host LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the 7-seed Los Angeles Lakers for Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Western Conference Semifinals Tuesday.

AD looked like a defensive juggernaut in LAL's 1st-round 4-2 series upset over the 2-seed Grizzlies. LeBron was the Robin of the Lakers' dynamic duo. James averaged 22.2 points per game and 11.2 rebounds vs. Memphis.

LeBron James speaks to Stephen Curry during their game at Chase Center in San Francisco, California. (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

The Warriors went the distance with the 3-seed Kings who just broke a 16-year playoff drought this season. Steph Curry had a Game 7 for the ages, scoring a Game 7-record 50 points in Golden State's 120-100 win.

For what it's worth, the Lakers were 3-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. the Warriors during the regular season. All of those results come with disclaimers such as injury luck for both teams and roster turnover for LAL.

Lakers at Warriors Game 1 Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting odds for the Lakers-Warriors Game 1 from DraftKings as of Tuesday, May 2nd at 1:45 p.m. ET.

My first issue with all the pro-Lakers analysis by NBA talking heads is their alleged "improvement on defense". LAL leads the playoffs in defensive rating but that had more to do with Memphis than the Lakers.

The Grizzlies had a terrible half-court offense this whole season and got exposed in the first round. LAL has the worst defensive wide-open 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) in the NBA postseason because Memphis sucks at shooting.

Lakers big Anthony Davis contests a Grizzlies PG Ja Morant jump shot during Game 5 of the 2023 NBA playoffs at FedExForum in Memphis. (Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Network)

In fact, the Grizzlies shot an NBA-worst 31.4% on wide-open 3s in the first round. If the Lakers leave the Warriors' shooters open, Golden State is sweeping this series. Curry's gravitational pull can create wide-open looks for teammates.

Also, aside from Davis and F Jarred Vanderbilt, none of the Lakers can D up. LeBron and LAL PG D'Angelo Russell will get cooked. Lakers SG Austin Reaves is solid defensively but isn't shutting down Curry or Klay Thompson.

The Game 1 line is too low

My other issue with Lakers-Warriors Game 1 is the spread itself. This is priced like these teams are essentially equal on a neutral floor. In the NBA playoffs, home-court is worth 3.5 to 4 points to the betting spread.

Golden State is an NBA-best 28-15-1 ATS at home this season. Per CleaningTheGlass.com, the Warriors are 4th in both net efficiency and spread differential at home. Plus, they are the REIGNING CHAMPIONS.

I get Golden State was awful on the road and needed the full-82 to clinch a non-play-in seed for the playoffs. But, how do the Warriors not get the benefit of the doubt? Their core has four NBA titles and we are seeing peak-Curry.

Warriors' Steph Curry handles the ball during the season opener vs. the Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing defense at Chase Center. (Jed Jacobsohn/NBAE via Getty Images)

Golden State's first-round win over Sacramento was a lot more impressive than LAL's over Memphis. The Kings were at full strength while the Grizzlies were missing two rotational players and their starting C Steven Adams.

The public is split on who to take in Game 1 but more cash at DraftKings is on the Warriors, per VSIN. Typically, you want to follow the money when it's counter to the public since professionals wager more dough than you or I.

Since the Lakers are like the Dallas Cowboys of the NBA, fading the public is a good angle in this series. I'd wait until closer to tip-off before betting on Golden State's spread. The Warriors could close as -4 favorites.

BET: Warriors -4.5 (-110) in Game 1, up to -5

The Warriors' odds vs. the Lakers in Game 1 of their NBA 2023 playoff series from DraftKings.