Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
The 4-seed Cleveland Cavaliers (1-3) are on the brink of elimination when they host the 5-seed New York Knicks (3-1) Wednesday in a possible home finale. Tip-off at the Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland is 7 p.m. ET.
It get a little sweaty in the 2nd-half, however, NYK beat the Cavs 102-93 in Game 4 at the Garden Tuesday to take a 3-1 series lead. New York won three of the “four factors” and three of the four quarters.
NYK’s front office got dogged by talking heads when they didn’t trade for Donovan Mitchell and Cleveland acquired him instead. But, Jalen Brunson has been the best player in the series and Mitchell has been a dud.
Brunson is averaging 24.3 points per game (PPG) and has a +13 net rating (nRTG). Mitchell is scoring just 22.0 PPG on 52.0% true shooting (.436/.303/.667) with a -7 nRTG.
Knicks Vs. Cavaliers Game 5 odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
NYK is definitely a public ‘dog, which is scary because those usually get slaughtered by sportsbooks. But, Cleveland looks shook and New York is winning three of the “four factors” in this series: Rebounding, free-throw rate, and turnover rate.
The battle of possessions are especially important in this Knicks-Cavaliers series because both teams are locking up defensively and laying bricks on offense.
When you add in the four playoff play-in teams that have been eliminated, Cleveland’s offense is 20th in non-garbage time efficiency and New York’s offense ranks 14th, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
In the eight Knicks-Cavaliers meetings this season (including the playoffs), NYK has a +7.0 rebound-per-game margin. With Brunson running things for the Knicks, they have a better offensive turnover rate than the Cavs in 2022-23.
NYK has a better offensive and defensive shot quality than Cleveland in this series, per CTG. Really, none of the Cavs are having a good series. Darius Garland and Mitchell have had good games but haven’t been consistent.
Furthermore, New York is stacked with elite perimeter on-ball defenders such as wing Josh Hart, R.J. Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Quentin Grimes (who is “questionable” for Game 5).
At the end of the day, my Knicks-Cavaliers handicap boils down to NYK being the better team and Cleveland not having enough offense to be laying more than 4 points in Game 5.
BET: Knicks +5.5 (-110) & ‘sprinkle’ on their (+185) moneyline at DraftKings
Check out Geoff’s NBA betting show on the OutKick Bets Podcast feed for the audio versions of the handicaps.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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