Geoff Clark
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The 5-seed New York Knicks (1-2) need their Game 4 vs. the Miami Heat (2-1) in the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals like blood. It’s happened a few times recently but going down 1-3 is a probable death sentence.
As much as I’d like to take the points with New York on the zig-zag theory, I just can’t. Miami has the best player in the series, the better coach, more continuity, and more playoff experience.
That said if you think I’m going to sit on the sidelines for Knicks-Heat Game 4 you’re high. It’s a Monday i.e. there’s nothing else to do besides bet on sports.
In lieu of not betting a side or total, I’ll take a stab at several player props. For the record, I’m splitting 1 unit-ish across these four player props (example: 1 unit = $100).
Knicks SF Josh Hart player combo: 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (“PRA”) in Game 4
- OVER 22.5 PRA: (-125)
- Under 22.5 PRA: (-105)
“If it’s not broke, don’t fix it” is the logic I’m using for this bet. I was on Hart’s 22.5 PRA for Game 3, which went a lot better than my NYK plus the points wager.
Hart soared Over his 22.5 PRA for Game 3, scoring 15 points, grabbing 12 boards, and dishing 2 assists. Hart has been a spark plug for the Knicks since arriving at the Feb. 9th trade deadline.
New York had the 2nd-highest rebounding rate in the regular season after the trade deadline. Hart is constantly giving the Knicks extra possessions by crashing the glass.
Knicks backup combo guard Immanuel Quickley is “doubtful” to play Game 4. Quickley is tied with Knicks All-Star Julius Randle for the 3rd-highest usage on the team in this series.
IQ’s usage has to go somewhere, right? Maybe it means more minutes for NYK backup G Miles McBride. But it should mean more run for Hart since he’s a Swiss army knife.
Hart’s defense keeps him on the floor, which will help him to go Over his PRA. In Game 3, Hart defended Heat alpha Jimmy Butler for 10:22 and the next closest NYK was Randle at 1:38.
BET: NYK Josh Hart OVER 22.5 Player Combo (-125) at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Betting strategy: Always shop around for the best odds for player props. Different sportsbooks have different odds and the most important thing in sports betting is finding the best number. It just so happens that OutKick’s partner, DraftKings, has the best price for Hart’s PRA.
Knicks F Julius Randle Assists prop (3.5)
- OVER 3.5 Assists: (-135)
- Under 3.5 assists: (+105)
Randle is low-key a willing passer. His assist rate is 23.8% for this series and Knicks PG Jalen Brunson is at 28.5%. Randle missed Game 1 but threw 8 assists in Game 2 and just 2 assists in Game 3.
The Knicks shot impossibly bad Saturday. They almost have to be better in Game 4. New York hit just 8-of-40 from 3-point land and Randle had the worst shooting percentage in the starting 5 (26.7%).
Since NYK’s back is against the wall, I expect them to go down playing through their stars: Brunson and Randle. Plus, the same usage logic for Hart above applies here. Randle needs to get his teammates looks
Don’t get sticker shock when you see the -135 tag for Randle’s Over 3.5 assists. Sometimes the finer things in life cost more money. In fact, most other legal U.S. sportsbooks price Randle’s assist prop higher.
My takeaway from this is the oddsmakers are begging for money on Randle’s Under 3.5 assists (+105). This past Super Bowl was my best yet in terms of betting props because I laid a ton of vig based on the same logic.
BET: New York Julius Randle OVER 3.5 assists (-135) at DraftKings
Heat SF Jimmy Butler Points prop (28.5)
- Over 28.5 points: (-110)
- UNDER 28.5 POINTS: (-120)
NYK must force someone other than Butler to beat them. If Butler scores 30 points, New York is most likely losing Game 4. Butler has gone Under 28.5 points in four of the six Knicks-Heat meetings this season including both playoff games.
In the two games that Butler scored more than 28.5 points vs. NYK, he attempted 20 free throws in one game and 14 in the other. So the Knicks need to keep Butler off the foul line.
Butler attempted 11 free throws in Miami’s Game 3 win and NBA officiating is known to zig-zag in the playoffs. We know the NBA wants this Knicks-Heat series to go as long as possible so I suspect Butler will get fewer calls in Game 4.
New York has three elite on-ball defenders to sic onto Butler including Hart, Barrett, and SG Quentin Grimes. Also, it’s tough to score 29 points without hitting 3s and Butler isn’t a good 3-point shooter.
Granted, in the 1st-round, Butler shot 44.4% from behind the arc vs. the Bucks. Yet Butler is just a 32.3% career 3-point shooter and hit fewer than 25% of his 3s in the previous three seasons (2019-22).
BET: Miami’s Jimmy Butler UNDER 28.5 points (-120) at DraftKings
Heat PG Kyle Lowry Player Combo: 18.5 PRA
- OVER 18.5 PRA: (-125)
- Under 18.5 PRA: (-105)
We’ve seen vintage Kyle Lowry in this Knicks-Heat series. Lowry is all over the place, making hustle plays, knocking down 3-pointers and finding open teammates.
During the regular season, Lowry averaged 11.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. At home, all those numbers increased as did Lowry’s efficiency.
Lowry has a team-high 30.2% assist rate in this series, has an above-average defensive rating, and is a knockdown free-throw shooter. His veteran savvy is why Lowry has played all but :56 seconds in the 4th quarter for the 1st three games of this series.
BET: Miami’s Kyle Lowry OVER 18.5 points (-125) at DraftKings
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
First-time DraftKings users can get up to a $1,000 deposit bonus and receive a 20% first deposit match up to $1,000 when they sign up. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
First-time DraftKings users can get up to a $1,000 deposit bonus and receive a 20% first deposit match up to $1,000 when they sign up. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.
