Heads up, this is mostly a Blake Snell Appreciation Post. The New York Mets (0-1) host the San Diego Padres (1-0) in a decisive Game 2 at Citi Field to save their season. If the Padres win, they advance to play the 1-seed Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday.
N.Y. sends out one of the best pitchers of this generation — RHP Jacob deGrom (5-4, 3.08 ERA) — which makes San Diego LHP Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38 ERA) underrated in this spot.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: PADRES (+145), Mets (-170)
- Run Line: Padres +1.5 (-170), Mets -1.5 (+145)
- Total (O/U) — 5.5 — O: -105, U: -115
BET: Padres (+145), all the way down to +135
Mets fans feel the walls closing in on their season and I’m getting bad vibes from their supporters.
More importantly, deGrom is getting priced as if he’s going to win the 2022 NL Cy Young but he missed most of the season and is trending in the wrong direction. He is 0-3 in his last four starts with a 6.00 ERA, six HRs allowed, and a .798 opposing OPS.
Snell has been dialed in since the All-Star break. He is 7-5 in 14 starts post-All-Star Game with a 2.19 ERA (5.22 first-half ERA), 1.03 WHIP (1.48 first-half WHIP) and a 5.25 K/BB rate (2.13 first-half K/BB rate).
The crux of my Padres-Mets handicap is that San Diego’s ML is too juicy with Snell on the bump. Snell has dealt with injuries over the past couple of seasons however there aren’t five starters in MLB with a higher ceiling.
He’s a former AL Cy Young winner, MLB wins leader and won the AL ERA title, all in 2018. Snell did so in the toughest division in MLB (AL East) while pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays. Also, Snell has a better postseason ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts per nine than deGrom.
Essentially, N.Y.’s expensive ML can be explained with the east coast and deGrom bias. But, the Mets are 8-11 with deGrom on the mound as -170 ML favorites or greater vs. teams with a winning record. N.Y. has a -1.16 margin of victory and -34.9% return on investment in those spots.
Finally, the oddsmakers are baiting bettors by making the Mets cheaper. According to VSIN, N.Y.’s ML is getting close to 75% of the money but has been lowered from a -184 consensus opener. This type of line movement is suspicious.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the SAN DIEGO PADRES (+145), down to +135.
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