Kentucky Derby Storylines and Free Picks

Before we get into the analysis, you can start building your bankroll now or go big on Derby Day by taking advantage of TVG’s limited-time $300 Risk-Free Win Bet promotion.

All you have to do to claim this offer is click this link, complete the registration process, and your first bet on a horse to win is 100% risk-free. For example, if you bet $300 on Essential Quality to win the Kentucky Derby at 2-1 odds, you’ll either walk away with $600 if he wins or TVG will refund you $300 in free bets if he loses.

In order for you to decipher who you’ll be betting come Saturday, we thought it’d be best to look at the Kentucky Derby from both a handicapping perspective and a storyline perspective. We’ve split the field in half, so let’s go over some key analysis and interesting angles coming into the derby for Post Positions 1-10.

  1. Known Agenda- Won the Florida Derby, and has the best jockey in the country on board. Is it enough to outweigh the dreaded rail draw?
  2. Like the King- Won his last race over synthetic track and is Wesley Ward’s first Derby horse ever, shocking I know. I’d say he has very little chance of coming anywhere near the podium come Saturday.
  3. Brooklyn Strong- Fifth in the Wood Memorial last out, and just isn’t fast enough. Gets turf extraordinaire jock Umberto Rispoli shipping in for a dirt race. Could be a karma play as Umberto was bumped from second favorite Rock Your World.
  4. Keepmeinmind- Has won at Churchill before. I tried saying more nice things, but I won’t keep this horse in mind.
  5. Sainthood- God Bless this horse for trying. Couldn’t win over synthetic last out.
  6. O Besos- O no thank you. It’d take a frantic pace up front for this closer to run up to get a piece.
  7. Mandaloun- The “other” Brad Cox horse, ridden by Florent Geroux. Connections spoiled last year’s Kentucky Oaks, and if you can forgive his last race where he didn’t show up, he’s got a shot.
  8. Medina Spirit- Winning connections of last year’s Kentucky Derby. Never finished worse than second. Gives spirited efforts. Did I mention training by Bob Baffert?
  9. Hot Rod Charlie- Won the Louisiana Derby on the front end and likes to rev his little engine early. Can he stalk if the pace is blistering? 
  10. Midnight Bourbon- Second to Hot Rod last out, horse picks up ‘Big Money’ Mike Smith who rode the last Triple Crown Winner. Bourbon is to Kentucky what cheese is to Wisconsin. Where’s this race again?

Of the first ten post positions, horses 7-10 are the only real ones to pay attention to. They’re going to go to the lead, but can any of them stay on the lead all the way around? The second group 11-20 is where the true contenders are.

  1. Dynamic One- Second in the Wood Memorial last out in New York. Nothing truly dynamic will happen with him Saturday unfortunately.
  2. Helium- Is this horse full of hot air and gas? Undefeated and well rested, may be the only 50-1 shot that wouldn’t be a head scratcher.
  3. Hidden Stash- Has won at Churchill. Odds are this stash will stay hidden.
  4. Essential Quality- Undefeated post time favorite. 2-year-old champion. Award winning trainer. Hot Jockey. He’s a beautiful grey. What’s not to like?
  5. Rock Your World- A turf horse romped and won the Santa Anita Derby? Horse wants this distance, and with early speed, could last.
  6. King Fury- Last horse to get into the race! Won two races over the ground at Churchill.
  7. Highly Motivated- Lost to Essential Quality by only a neck last time out. Could he find himself running 1-2 again with the champ?
  8. Super Stock- Upset winner of the Arkansas Derby. A true family affair with ownership and trainer, but can he hold form a second time out in a month?
  9. Soup and Sandwich- Lightly raced and second in the Florida Derby. Picks up Churchill Downs leading jockey of 2020. Seems like more of a lunch option, and the Derby is dinner time.
  10. Bourbonic- Won the Wood at 72-1 coming from the clouds. May have to pass all 19 horses, you like those chances?

The latter ten horses boast my three plays for this Kentucky Derby. Nothing not to like about Essential Quality, Rock Your World, and Highly Motivated.

Free Pick: Rock Your World to Win. Essential Quality-Rock Your World- Highly Motivated Exacta and Trifecta Box.

With TVG, you can use our Free Pick and bet up to $300 to Win on Rock Your World, and if it’s your first Win Bet, and he loses, your money is refunded to you! It pays to play with TVG. Click here to claim this offer and make your bets.

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Written by OutKick Bets

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