Kelly, Diamondbacks Can Beat Braves

Braves vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 ET

The Padres finally exploded yesterday, and of course that was due to me saying they can't score. Something about this season has just allowed me to be the key to unlocking teams and players from their trends. Hopefully, I can get one today where a trend stays on our side and we can take down a unit for some beer money before the weekend. We will focus in on the Braves vs. Diamondbacks.

The Braves are one of the best teams in baseball and that was to be expected. They are two years removed from the World Series victory and they didn't dismantle the team. They've been doing a great job of keeping the team together and effective both with pitching and hitting. I'm impressed with how they have jumped out to a great early start and keep it rolling. They've also been very good on the road, but not as good at home which is kind of strange. As far as the Diamondbacks, I have to say even I am surprised they have been this good for this long. Arizona is currently in second within the division. That's crazy to me that they have been able to last a third of the season with them this close to first place. They've been good on the road and at home this season.

The Braves take on the Diamondbacks tonight. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

The Braves are bringing Charlie Morton to the mound. He's been pretty solid over the course of his Braves career. Morton is currently sporting a 3.59 ERA. Like has has in previous seasons, he has been very good when he is good, and very bad when he is bad. For example, in five May starts, he allowed two or fewer runs in three of them and four or more runs in the other two. April was much more consistent, but I think May is a little more realistic for how Morton performs. The Diamondbacks are getting one of their two best pitchers to try and stifle the Braves offense, Merrill Kelly. Kelly has already made us some money this year and he is currently the owner of a 2.83 ERA. In his most recent start, he allowed just one earned run over 6.1 innings. In fact, he already has five starts this year where he has gone at least six innings and allowed just one earned run.

I'm backing the Diamondbacks to win this game at +105. I don't think there is any question about who is the best team in the game, it is the Braves. However, Kelly is the best pitcher. If you want to go with the first five innings, be my guest, but I do think the Diamondbacks take this game down behind the arm of Merrill Kelly.

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