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The 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open has a stacked field and tees off Thursday, February 9 to Super Bowl Sunday February 12 to begin an insane sports weekend for the Greater Phoenix area.
State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona hosts Super Bowl 2023 and TPC Scottsdale hosts the Waste Management (WM) Phoenix Open, which is scheduled finish right before kickoff for the Super Bowl, 6:35 p.m. ET.
Justin Rose won the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Monday in a tourney that was postponed due to bad weather conditions this past weekend.
I got close to cashing my 5th outright winner in 13 PGA Tour events handicapped this season when Brendon Todd (+7500) finished 2nd at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
That said, I still profited betting the Pebble Beach Pro-Am by cashing top-5, top-10 and top-20 tickets on Todd. Also, a top-20 bet on Seamus Power and a couple of head-to-head matchups.
My 2022-23 PGA Tour betting balance increased by +1.09 units (u) up to +29.33 units this season. The recap of my AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am betting performance is at the bottom of this post.
Before we diving into the WM Phoenix Open bet slip, we’ll go over tourney details, do a brief course breakdown and I’ll give me key performance indicators (KPIs).
Event intel and KPIs for the Waste Management Phoenix Open
TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 with a 7,261 yardage. There are three Par 5s, four Par 3s, 11 Par 4s. The WM Phoenix Open is one of the hottest tickets of the season on the PGA Tour.
This is the 2nd of the PGA Tour’s 17 new “elevated events”. Will Zalatoris is the only eligible PGA golfer ranked inside the top-20 of the Official World Golf Rankings not in the WM Phoenix Open field.
Defending WM Phoenix Open champion Scottie Scheffler, and World No. 2, is in this 136-golfer field. Course history carries more weight in my Waste Management power rankings because of all the repeat winners of this event.
The average winning score of the last five WM Phoenix Opens is 17-under and the average cut-line is even or 1-under. Comp courses used in my WM Phoenix Opens power rankings include:
- Southern Hills Country Club: 2022 PGA Championship.
- Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course): Fortinet Championship.
- Memorial Park Golf Course: Cadence Bank Houston Open.
- Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge: Arnold Palmer Invitational.
- TPC Summerlin: Shriners Children’s Open.
- TPC Sawgrass: The PLAYERS Championship.
KPIs pulled (over the last 50 rounds unless otherwise noted)
- Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP).
- SG: Ball-Striking (BS).
- Good Drives, which combine accuracy and distance.
- SG: Par 4
- Par 4 Efficiency (EFF): 400-450.
- Par 4 EFF: 450-500.
- There are five holes each in both yard distances at TPC Scottsdale.
- Proximity (PROX): 150-175.
- There are 4.1% more 2nd shots at that range than the PGA Tour average.
- Par 5 EFF: 550-600.
- There are three holes within that yardage.
- Birdies-or-Better (BoB) Gained.
- SG: Putting on Bermuda over the last 24 rounds.
- SG: Putting on firm greens
Waste Management Phoenix Open ‘horses for the course’
- All stats are provided by FantasyNational.com unless noted.
JT is one of those golfers that I auto-bet when his odds get to 20-to-1 or higher. He is only ranked 16th in my WM Phoenix Open power rankings.
But, JT ranks 4th in this field for SG at TPC Scottsdale. There are several drive-able Par 4s at this course. That gets me thinking about the tee shot Thomas hit in the playoff vs. Zalatoris in the 2022 PGA Championship.
This is one of the best tee shots of the entire 2021-22 PGA Tour season and only golfers in the world can hit that shot. Thomas went onto win the 2022 PGA Championship, his 2nd major victory.
It was played at Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma, a comp course for TPC Scottsdale. Like Scottsdale, the heat in Tulsa makes the course faster and firmer.
Thomas is only 59th in this field for total SG over the last 24 rounds. A major reason for JT’s struggles is he has lost strokes on the green in four of his past six events.
However, Thomas picked up more than 6 strokes on the greens at the 2022 PGA Championship, which also has firm and fast Bermuda greens.
Also, JT is virtually lock to cash a top-20 ticket. JT has finished T17 or better in five consecutive WM Phoenix Opens including 3rd in last year’s and he was 2nd in SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G).
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Justin Thomas odds:
- Win: (0.5u: +2200)
- Top-5: (0.5u: +500)
- Top-10: (0.5u: +240)
- Top-20: (1u: +115)
If you’re familiar with my PGA Tour handicapping than you know Sungjae Im is “one of my guys”. Im is tied for the 9th-best odds at DraftKings and he’s 3rd in my WM Phoenix Open power rankings.
Sungjae is 4th in my KPI model, ranking 9th in this field for SG: BS, 4th in Par EFF: 450-500, and 7th in Par 5 EFF: 550-600. A lot of these TPC courses have a similar template.
Im is 4th for total SG in this field at six TPC courses used on the PGA Tour and 3rd in total SG at comp courses used. He won the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open and finished 7th last year in that event.
Sungjae is 15th for total SG in this field over the past 24 rounds. I cashed top-5 and top-10 bets on Im at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open at the end of January.
The WM Phoenix Open will have a major-like feel to it as an “elevated event” with a stacked field. Im is solid throughout the bag, which is needed in tough fields.
Sungjae has picked up strokes in the five most important golfing metrics (APP, Off-the-Tee, Around-the-Green, T2G and putting) over his last five, 10, 20 and 126 tourneys played.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Sungjae Im odds:
- Win: (0.5u: +2500)
- Top-5: (0.5u: +500)
- Top-10: (0.5u: +250)
- Top-20: (0.5u: +110)
This is another one of “my guys” who is my good graces after cashing top-10 and top-20 bets with a 9th-place finish at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open.
Matsuyama owns TPC Scottsdale and course history matters more at this event. The WM Phoenix Open has the rowdiest crowd of any PGA Tour event on the calendar, which could throw unfamiliar golfers off.
Hideki won the back-to-back WM Phoenix Opens from 2016-17, finished T2 in 2015, T4 in 2014 and T8 last year. In his 32 career rounds at the WM Phoenix Open, Matsuyama has shot over-par once.
Matsuyama leads the field for SG at TPC Scottsdale, is 10th in my WM Phoenix Open power rankings, 12th in comp courses used and 5th in SG over his last 50 rounds at TPC courses used on the PGA Tour.
Hideki fell off golf bettors’ radar because he had an injured neck in 2022 leading to a down-year. A “down-year” for him still included a win at the 2022 Sony Open, 4th at the 2022 U.S. Open, and 14th at the 2022 Masters as the defending champ.
Now that Matsuyama is healthy, I expect him to contend in at least one major this season. Hideki’s +3500 odds is too juicy to pass up considering his history at this event and the fact that he still only 30 years old.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Hideki Matsuyama odds:
- Win: (0.5u: +3500)
- Top-5: (0.5u: +700)
- Top-10: (0.5u: +320)
- Top-20: (1u: +140)
Last year, Theegala was a rookie on the PGA Tour and he arrived on the scene with a T3 at the 2022 WM Phoenix Open. But, Theegala’s 3rd-place finish was brutal.
He was tied for the lead at 16-under going into the difficult 17th hole before bogeying and missing out on the playoff that Scheffler beat Patrick Cantlay at to win the event.
The glass-half-full way for Theegala to absorb this loss is “it was his 1st time in the WM Phoenix Open” and he learned a lot from the experience.
Most of the golf talking heads who follow the Korn Ferry Tour insist that Theegala is a future major champion. Sahith is only the 5th golfer to win the Haskins, the Ben Hogan, and the Jack Nicklaus Awards in the same year (2020).
Sahith is an elite iron player and was +8.8 SG: T2G and +6.7 SG: APP en route to a T4 finish in his previous event, the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open.
Since TPC Scottsdale generally favors golfers with experience, I’m taking a shot that Theegala learned from last year’s choke-job. Even though he doesn’t really pop on my model.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Sahith Theegala odds:
- Win: (0.35u: +5500)
- Top-5: (0.35u: +1100)
- Top-10: (0.35u: +500)
- Top-20: (0.5u: +210)
Waste Management Phoenix Open Head-to-Heads
Tom Hoge (+105) > Jordan Spieth
Hoge is 9th in my WM Phoenix Open power rankings and Spieth is 33rd. Hoge is the best iron player in the field over the last 50 rounds and 10th in SG: Par 4. Spieth is 53rd in SG: APP and 40th in SG: Par 4.
Also, Spieth has been off his game lately. He’s lost strokes with his irons in four straight events. Spieth finished 63rd at last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, an event Spieth usually plays well at and has won.
Spieth is 72nd for total SG in this field over the last 24 rounds and Hoge is 27th. Hoge is 9th for SG in this field at comp courses and Spieth is 58th.
Finally, Hoge is +0.5 SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds on Bermuda and +0.2 SG: Putting on firm greens. Spieth ranks 109th in this field for SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds on Bermuda (-0.3).
Tom Kim (-130) > Taylor Montgomery
Montgomery is atop the 2022-23 PGA Tour rookie rankings but Kim already has three top-10 finishes in six events this season.
Neither have played this event but Kim won 2022 Shriners Children’s Open back in October at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, a comp course to TPC Scottsdale.
Montgomery is due for regression once his putter cools off. He is picking up 4.1 strokes per round on the greens at his last 10 events.
However, Montgomery is just 130th in this field for SG: APP and 138th in PROX: 150-175. Whereas Kim is 3rd in SG: APP, 1st in PROX: 150-175, 4th in Par 4 EFF: 450-500, and 8th in BoB Gained.
Chris Kirk (-120) > Scott Stallings
Both of these golfers rank middle of the pack in my KPI model but Kirk is 37th in my WM Phoenix Open power rankings and Stallings 102nd.
Stallings ranks 112th in this field for SG at comp courses used, 98th in total SG over the last 24 rounds, and 99th in SG at TPC Scottsdale. He has missed the cut in six of his nine WM Phoenix Open appearances.
Kirk is just 41st in total SG over the last 24 rounds by has placed 3rd in two consecutive events: 2023 Sony Open and 2023 American Express Open. He is 42nd in SG at TPC Scottsdale and 14th at comp courses.
Waste Management Phoenix Open Final Bet Slip
- Justin Thomas: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (2.5u)
- Sungjae Im: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (2u)
- Hideki Matsuyama: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (2.5u)
- Sahith Theegala: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (1.55u)
- Tom Hoge (1u: +105) > Jordan Spieth
- Tom Kim (1u: -130) > Taylor Montgomery
- Chris Kirk (1u: -120) > Scott Stallings
2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Recap (+1.09u)
- Brendon Todd, tied for 🥈: Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (+4.65u) 💰
- Win ❌
- Jordan Spieth > Maverick McNealy (+1u) 💰
- Viktor Hovland (+100) > Matthew Fitzpatrick, added via Twitter 💰
- Seamus Power, tied for 15th: Top-20 (-0.88u) ✅
- Win, Top-5 & Top-10 ❌
- Thomas Detry, tied for 37th: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (-1.7u) ❌
- Ben Griffin, missed cut: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (-1.61u) ❌
- David Lipsky, missed cut: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (-1.37u) ❌
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