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Frankly, the line for the New York Jets (6-3) at the New England Patriots (5-4) in Week 11 is wrong and disrespectful and I won’t stand for it. In Week 8, the Patriots were favored by 2.5 points in NY and now they are only -3.5 in New England?!
Betting Splits (DraftKings)
- Moneyline (ML): Jets (+145), Patriots (-170)
- Against the spread (ATS): Jets +3.5 (-110), PATRIOTS -3.5 (-110)
- Total (O/U) — 38 — O: -110, U: -110
This is one of the grossest and most blatant overreactions I’ve seen from oddsmakers in quite some time. Both teams have played just one game since Week 8 and had a bye last week.
The Jets beat the almighty Buffalo Bills 20-17 in NY as 11-point home underdogs in Week 9. The Patriots embarrassed the Indianapolis Colts 26-3 that same week in what turned out to be now-former Indy head coach Frank Reich’s last game.
For the life of me, I cannot figure out these odds. Who would you rather have after a bye: Bill Belichick (six Super Bowls) or NY coach Robert Saleh (10-16 record in two seasons)?
I also kinda figured this was common sense. Like, no way would the public bet on the Jets getting less than a TD in New England. The Patriots have the square side, right?
Wrong. DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting via VSIN that more than 60% of the action is on the Jets. WTF?! The Patriots fell to a 3-point favorite briefly but New England is back up to -3.5 despite all the pro-NY money.
Not only can we fade the Jets as a public ‘dog because of weird recency bias but we also get a cheap Patriots line with Belichick vs. a terrible QB.
Belichick is winning QB battles
What Belichick is doing for his QBs and against opposing QBs this season is nuts. The Patriots are second in net dropback expected points added per play (EPA/play) and sixth in net dropback success rate.
As in, New England’s QBs outperform opposing QBs in EPA/play at the second-highest rate in the NFL, behind Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. The QBs are ahead of the Patriots in net success rate are Patrick Mahomes, Geno Smith, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Tom Brady (in that order).
This is despite New England having three different starting QBs combining for a 9/10 TD/INT rate. Belichick is doing this with recently fired coaches, Joe Judge and Matt Patricia, as his offensive assistants.
Clearly the reason behind this is the Patriots’ defense, which is nasty. Again. Outside of pass rusher Matt Judon who leads the NFL in sacks at 11.5, there aren’t stars on New England’s defense.
But, the Patriots are first in both defensive EPA/play and pressure rate (29.7%) and fifth in defensive success rate this season. More importantly, New England haunts bad QBs and Jets QB Zach Wilson will be seeing ghosts on Sunday.
‘The Hoodie’ vs. Wilson
Here are Wilson’s stats in three career games vs. New England: 0-3 with a 54.6% completion rate, 2/7 TD/INT rate, and a 50.5 QB Rating. The Patriots are 3-0 overall and ATS with a +16.7 ATS margin in those games.
Furthermore, the Jets have a bottom-10 offensive pressure rate and the Patriots pressured Wilson on 37.2% of his 43 dropbacks. New England forced a 34.3% bad-throw rate from Wilson in Week 8.
Wilson is the worst QB under pressure, per Pro Football Focus, and has by far the worst adjusted completion rate. The next closest QB in adjusted completion rate to Wilson’s NFL-worst 35.3% is Patriots QB Mac Jones’ 51.5%.
The bottom line is gimme Belichick vs. any bad QB in the NFL. Especially a QB as bad under pressure as Wilson.
BET: Patriots -3.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -4
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.