It Doesn't Matter Who Is Under Center, Grab Utah

Florida vs. Utah, 8:00 ET, Thursday Night

College football has started much the same way that MLB has gone for me this season. I put out two plays for the Saturday games and went 1-1. There were too many points being given by USC and not nearly enough, apparently, from Notre Dame. Now we are getting more of the teams to kickoff their season. I'm taking a play in the only game with a ranked team playing Thursdayt between Florida and #14 Utah.

Florida has a lot of questions coming into this season. The Gators need to figure out their offense and figure it out quickly. They have a new quarterback, Graham Mertz, under center and thus far in his college career he hasn't been that special. In four years with Wisconsin, he has roughly a 60% completion percentage which is good, but he's thrown 26 interceptions to go along with his 38 touchdowns. He also was sacked 49 times in those years, which obviously isn't all his fault, but it makes me concerned for his mobility to evade some of that. Utah has a good defensive line and if they can get past the Florida offensive line, I don't know that Mertz will be able to avoid a sack, or may be more likely to throw an interception. There is one other obstacle that may or may not impact the Gators - they had to alter their travel plans to get to Utah due to the impending storm. If their offensive line can protect their quarterback, they might have a chance to win the game.

The Gators take on the Utes in Utah to open their season. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

Utah has a big question as well: How healthy is their quarterback, Cameron Rising? My guess is that Rising is not going to suit up based on the line movement, but that doesn't appear to have been confirmed one way or another. I'm not quite sure it matters though. The Gators have a very athletic front line on defense and might be able to prevent the running game from Utah, at least for a little bit. They have been very solid at running the football and in their home stadium, I think they should be able to move the ball but if they become one-dimensional, the Gators will probably coast in the game. How you interpret the most recent news is somewhat up to you: Nate Johnson and Bryson Barnes, the two backups for Utah are essentially in a dead heat for starting the game if Rising can't go. Is this a bit of gamesmanship from Utah - not trying to let Florida prepare for any of the three quarterbacks? Or are neither backups that solid? Or, are they both playing so well that it is hard to decide?

So, there are questions about both teams. Both defenses should be really strong. We've seen Mertz play and, frankly, I don't think he is all that good. If Rising plays, I think the Utes coast in this game. If he doesn't play, I still think that Utah at home is the better play. Their defense is strong, their offensive line will be better, and there is more continuity on their side. One other angle is that they lost their season opener to Florida last season. Now they can get a bit of revenge on Florida in Utah. I'll grab Utah at -4.5, and probably would've played it even at the 6.5 it was a day ago.

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