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The AFC East was dominated for so long by the Patriots, people are probably worth paying high prices on teams to win that division. But, is it worth it? In my opinion probably not. All it takes is one injury to Josh Allen for the Bills to go from Super Bowl favorite to picking high in the draft. Their team isn’t that bad, but their season is over without Allen. Here are my thoughts on the AFC East winner.
I mentioned this in an article about Alabama and winning the National Championship. Unless you have enough money that makes it worth tying up for months to get a return, it really isn’t worth it. I like the Bills quite a bit this season, and at -220 or -2something depending where you’re looking, I can’t justify paying it. I will, though put them in a parlay to win the division. I like the Colts a lot to win their division too. I also think the Buccanneers are a good bet to win their division. Either of them combined with the Bills will give even money or better as a return. Parlays are risky and I still stand by my comment that if you’re going to do this you need enough money to make it worthwhile.
If I had a free bet, and said “Okay, David, who would you take that isn’t the Bills to win the division?” My answer would be the Patriots. At +500, I think the Patriots are a good value. Bill Bellichick obviously makes a huge difference and even last year with rookie Mac Jones the Patriots were 10-7, finishing second in the division. I don’t think they are better than the Bills, but if something were to happen, I think they win the division. I also think they are the second-best team in the division.
The Dolphins, to me, are a good team, but probably still won’t make the playoffs. I expect them to be 8-9, or 9-8, somewhere in that area. I don’t know that they will be a 10-win team. Sure, they have Tyreek Hill now. However, they have a run-first coach – in a very crowded backfield. Could they win the division, probably not. I just don’t think their team is ready yet. I wouldn’t even say there is much value on them. If they were at +600 it might be worth it. Even still, I doubt I’d put anything on anyone in the division. You’d be hoping for an Allen injury in order to win it. Seems like bad karma.
As for the Jets, we probably would be better served talking about Zach Wilson and his love life, or love of mothers than we would waste money on the Jets to win the division. Either option is pretty pointless. At least the jokes about Wilson’s love life are more fun than the joke that is the Jets.
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