How to bet the final NBA Play-in Game: Grizzlies vs Warriors

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The last game of an entertaining Western Conference Play-In Tournament happens tonight with the Warriors and Grizzlies. A few weeks ago, Outkick posted an article about getting the Warriors at +100 to make the playoffs. As of right now, the Grizzlies are +184 to win the game. Meaning you have some opportunity to hedge if you think the Grizzlies win the game. I don’t, but this is a way to secure profit, and that’s the only important thing.

The season series saw the Warriors take two of three matchups. The totals came to 214, 214, and 219, with the winning margins being 12, 9, and 13. FanDuel lists the game as a 4.5 spread towards the Warriors and a total of 221.5. Sharps have pushed the spread from 3.5 to 3.5 and brought the total down from an initial listing of 224. 

My first play on this is the spread. I am taking the Warriors -4.5. I don’t think this game will be a nail-biter. My biggest concern with this play is that the Warriors played in a much more emotional game than the Grizzlies did. I see them coming out one of two ways – having the Warriors take the game over by storm and never look back (think of the Lakers game with a much different ending). Or, they come out very flat and work to get back into the game in the second half (think Gonzaga vs Baylor, again with a different ending). 

My second play is also on the spread, but specifically the 3rd Quarter. The Warriors have the second-best point differential at home in the third quarter this season behind only the Jazz. Memphis is top 10 on the road, but the Warriors are still a team with former champions, the third quarter is often the most important quarter and I expect it to be where the Warriors pull away. Give me Warriors -1.5 at -102 for the third quarter

I just don’t see the Warriors losing this game. They are the far superior team defensively and they have the best shooter of all time on their team. Ja Morant is a budding star for the league and eventually will carry his team into the playoffs, I just don’t think this is the year. His point total is listed at 21.5 with juice slightly towards the over. If we look at his last ten games, he’s gone over that total just three times. This game feels different and I expect him to come out firing and looking to score; the more he makes Curry work on defense, the more it might slow Curry on offense. I’ll take the over on his total. 

Here are a few other sprinkle plays I like: 

  • Grizzlies +142 first half moneyline. I can see them having the lead in the first half before not finishing the game off in the second.
  • Under 224. I don’t think this will be a really high scoring game. Golden State is a good defensive team. 
  • Curry under 38.5 points. Again, if it is a blowout, he likely needs to score 39 over three quarters, which he can. If it is a tight game, the scoring for both teams will be lower and you’ll have to sweat the fourth quarter. Either way, I can’t bet on 39 from him. 

Best of luck to you all however you play it. 

Written by OutKick Bets

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