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Casual NBA fans got to see what all this Light The Beam hype is about Saturday. The 3-seed Sacramento Kings (1-0) beat the 6-seed Golden State Warriors (0-1) 126-123 in a thrilling Game 1.
Both All-Star point guards balled out. Kings PG De’Aaron Fox scored a game-high 38 points on 48.1% shooting. Steph Curry almost will the Warriors to a Game 1 victory by scoring 20 of his 30 points in the 2nd half.
This season (including the playoffs), Golden State is 3-2 straight up (SU) but just 1-4 against the spread (ATS) vs. Sacramento.
Warriors at Kings (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tip-off: 10 p.m. ET on Monday, April 17th.
- Venue: Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.
Most of my Game 1 analysis applies to Monday’s Warriors-Kings meeting as well. On top of that, everyone is betting Golden State and my natural instinct is to fade a market when it’s this lopsided.
According to VSIN, roughly 80% of the money at DraftKings Sportsbook is on the Warriors. You don’t need to be a sharp to understand that eight out of 10 sports bettors don’t make money in this racket.
It seems like the market thinks that the Kings were lucky to win Game 1. However, I’d argue that the Warriors were lucky to keep it close. Sacramento PF Domantas Sabonis and SG Kevin Huerter almost cannot play worse.
Sabonis scored 12 points on 5-of-17 shooting and Huerter put up 6 points on 3-of-12 shooting (0-for-5 from behind the arc). Also, Kings backup combo guard Malik Monk scoring 32 points wasn’t a fluke.
Golden State’s backcourt defense got torched by Fox and Monk and I don’t see how that changes Tuesday. The Warriors need Curry and Klay Thompson for offense but neither can stay in front of Fox and Monk.
Lastly, Monk dominated Golden State’s two best perimeter, on-ball defenders: SF Andrew Wiggins and G Gary Payton II. If Fox and Monk stay aggressive Tuesday, I’ll take my chances that their teammates step it up in Game 2.
PS Player Prop: Warriors PF Draymond Green Points Prop (8.5)
- Over 8.5: -115
- UNDER 8.5: -115
Draymond’s response to the Warriors allowing 126 points in Game 1 will be to step up his defensive intensity. Even if he wanted a bigger presence in Golden State’s offense, Green probably won’t the one scoring.
The Warriors have a ton of shooters (obviously) and Green is Golden State’s de facto point guard. He’ll be setting screens and doing dribble hand-offs for the Splash Brothers and Jordan Poole.
Green scored just 4 points in Game 1 and scored more than 7 points in three of the four Warriors-Kings meetings this season. Draymond went Over 8.5 points in just 34 of his 73 games during the regular season.
Lastly, Sacramento doesn’t give up easy points that would lead to Draymond going Over this number. The Kings are 10th in defensive free-throw-attempt rate and 7th in defensive rebounding. I.e. few easy putbacks or freebies at the charity stripe for Green.
Check out NBA Hoops At Lunch basketball betting show on the OutKick Bets Podcast feed for the audio versions of the handicaps below.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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