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As Joe Biden faces increasing fallout from the allegations that he sexually assaulted Tara Reade in 1993 when she was his Senate aide, Hillary Clinton is substantially trending upwards in the gambling odds. At press time of 10:30 ET on Thursday night on PredictIt, which is the marketplace that at this time most reliably tracks these things, Clinton is up to 13 cents to win the Democratic nominee:
The way this works is when you click to buy a candidate at X cents, you get a dollar minus X if that candidate wins. So, with Biden right now you’d risk 78 cents to win 22; with Clinton now, you’d risk 13 cents to win 87.
Yes, Biden is still the prohibitive favorite, but there has been a really rapid shift in Clinton’s direction. At the beginning of the day, she was at 6 cents and she was at 4 cents a week ago. She got as high as 15 cents tonight before dipping a little bit.
It’s crazy and, from the outside, somewhat inexplicable that these current odds imply she is 3-4 times as likely as Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nominee. Sanders actually ran a campaign and earned delegates in primaries. Clinton has not expressed any public desire to even run.
However you line up politically, these odds are interesting to track.