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The other must-win Game 5 on the NBA’s Wednesday card is the Los Angeles Lakers (3-1) at the Golden State Warriors (1-3) in the 2023 NBA Western Conference semifinals.
LA beat Golden State 104-101 at home in Game 4 in what should be dubbed the Lonnie Walker IV Game. Walker out-dueled Steph Curry in the 4th quarter Monday, erupting for 15 points.
Lakers SG Austin Reaves had a slump-busting Game 4 outing and LeBron James had a 27-9-6 stat line. Anthony Davis snapped his streak of seesaw performances, scoring 23 points on 62.5% shooting and grabbing 15 rebounds.
These teams have split the “four factors” through the first four games of this series. But, the difference has been at the charity stripe: The Lakers have attempted 52 more free throws (103-51) in this series.
This shouldn’t come as a surprise though. The Lakers had a +7.5 free-throw-attempt per game margin during the regular season and the Warriors were -5.0.
Lakers At Warriors Game 5 odds
- Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
As we discussed earlier in this series, the Warriors play much better defense in the Bay. During the regular season, Golden State was third in adjusted defensive efficiency at home and 28th on the road, per CleaningTheGlass.com.
The Lakers-Warriors are attempting 9.5 more free throws per game when this series is in Los Angeles. LAL seemingly figured out how to stop the Warriors. Or at least slow down Curry, which is more important.
In this series, Curry is averaging 25.3 points per game on 43.7% shooting and 38.1% from behind the arc. Those would be great numbers from anyone else but Golden State needs more from Curry.
Warriors backup combo guard Jordan Poole is in the witness protection program. Klay Thompson is having a similar issue as Steph in that he’s just not scoring enough points.
NBA playoff games become lower-scoring as the series progress. Teams learn each other’s tendencies and make adjustments. The betting market isn’t making a big enough adjustment for Lakers-Warriors Game 5.
Per Pregame.com, more than 80% of the consensus betting market is backing the Over for this game. However, the total for Lakers-Warriors Game 5 has been lowered from a 226-point opener down to the current number.
BET: UNDER 225.5 (-110) in Lakers-Warriors Game 5, down to 225
PS Player Prop: Golden State PF Draymond Green 22.5 Player Combo: Points + Rebounds + Assists (“PRA”)
- OVER 22.5 PRA: -130
- Under 22.5 PRA: +100
This is more of a gut-feeling or eye-ball test bet since the numbers don’t support it. But, Green is a big-game player and I think he has a major impact on Game 5.
When you look into Green’s history in the playoffs, he usually performs well in these spots. In Game 7 of Golden State’s 1st-round series vs. the Kings, Green only had 22 PRA.
However, Green had a 32 PRA in Game 6 of the 2022 NBA Finals, 32 PRA in Game 5 of the 2022 Western Conference Finals, and 37 PRA in the 2022 Western Conference Semifinals.
This is Draymond’s 29th NBA playoff series while playing for Golden State. Green has gone Over 22 PRA in the final game for 24 of those 29 series. The point is when the Dubs need someone to step up in the playoffs, that guy is usually Draymond.
BET: Warriors PF Draymond Green OVER 22.5 PRA (-130)
- Betting strategy: I’d only throw a quarter-unit plus the tax on this player prop while putting 1 unit-ish on the Under for Game 5. For example, 1 unit = $100.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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