Geoff Clark
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After steering clear of the 2023 Final Four, the NBA returns Sunday with a legitimate 13-game card. There are several matchups with playoff implications including my three looks.
Below, I’ll break down and make picks in the Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks, Oklahoma City Thunder hosting the Phoenix Suns, and Golden State Warriors visiting the Denver Nuggets.
(BUYER BEWARE: We are in the NBA’s “load management” and “tanking” eras. It’s best to wait until the final injury reports come out before placing a bet).
Dallas Mavericks (37-40) at Atlanta Hawks (38-39), 6 p.m. ET
The best time to back the Hawks is after they lose. Atlanta is 23-15 straight up (SU) and 21-16-1 against the spread (ATS) after a loss this season. Since Jan. 14, the Hawks haven’t been more than one game below or above-.500.
Also, this is the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B) for the Mavs who played the Heat in Miami Saturday. Dallas is 3-9 SU (-5.3 SU margin) and 3-8-1 ATS (-4.9 ATS margin) on the 2nd of B2Bs.
The Mavs’ defense has been pathetic all season and rank 26th in defensive rating. According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Hawks are 15-6 SU vs. bottom-10 defenses with a +6.7 adjusted net rating.
Motivation isn’t a question for either team. Atlanta is 8th in the East and Dallas is 11th in the West, one game behind the Thunder for the 10th and final playoff play-in seed.
Finally, post-All-Star break, Atlanta has the highest bench +/- in the NBA. The Hawks should have no problem winning by margin since role players perform better at home and the Mavs defense is trash.
NBA Best Bet #1: Hawks -3 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -4
Phoenix Suns (42-35) at Oklahoma City Thunder (38-40), 7:10 p.m. ET
OKC upset Phoenix 124-120 at home on March 19th but the Thunder were at full-strength and the Suns were missing Kevin Durant. The Thunder -1.5 favorites in that meeting so the question is, “Is KD worth 5.5 points?”
Well, Phoenix is 5-0 SU when KD plays. And, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Suns score 10.8 more points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Durant is on the floor.
Also, Phoenix is 6th in offensive rebounding rate and score the 8th-most 2nd-chance points per game (PPG). OKC is 29th in defensive rebounding and dead-last in 2nd-chance PPG allowed.
The Suns thrive in areas where the Thunder’s defense is vulnerable and defends the paint well. Per CTG, Phoenix attempts a majority of its field goals in the mid-range. OKC is 19th in defensive field goal shooting vs. mid-range jumpers.
The Thunder have the most drives per game in the NBA and scores the 2nd-most paint PPG. Whereas the Suns are 7th in defensive shot quality, according to CTG, and 8th in paint PPG allowed.
I don’t have faith OKC can keep up when the starters go out. Over the last five games, the Suns are 5th in bench PPG and the Thunder are 26th.
Phoenix backup wing T.J. Warren has given the Suns great minutes. Warren has a +16.0 non-garbage time on/off net rating (per CTG) since going to Phoenix with KD.
Who initiates OKC’s offense when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is off the floor? Ultimately, the Thunder like to speed up the tempo and the Suns will end up out-scoring them.
NBA Best BET #2: Suns -4.5 (-110) at DraftKings, up to -5.5
Golden State Warriors (41-37) at Denver Nuggets (51-26), 8:30 p.m. ET
Denver is 2-0 SU and ATS vs. Golden State this season. The Warriors had SF Andrew Wiggins and Steph Curry active for both games.
Wiggins is still out dealing with personal issues and the Warriors aren’t the “Warriors” without Wiggins. Aside from Draymond Green, Wiggins is Golden State’s most important player on defense.
The Nuggets rank 2nd in offensive rating and 1st in effective field goal shooting (eFG%). The Warriors are 28th in defensive rating on the road and the only teams worse are tanking (Rockets and Spurs).
Denver is 11-2 SU at home vs. teams with a bottom-10 defenses and has a +15.0 adjusted net rating in those spots, per CTG. Golden State is 2-17 SU as a road ‘dog (-12.2 SU margin) and 5-14 ATS (-6.3 ATS margin).
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have sat out the last two games for the Nuggets, both losses. I’m betting they’ll play since Denver’s lead atop the West is down to 2 games with five remaining.
The Nuggets need to put this away before the Grizzlies chase them down. This is the 2nd-to-last regular-season game in Denver. My bet is the Nuggets will put on a show in their building and all but clinch the West.
NBA Best Bet #3: Nuggets (-130) moneyline at DraftKings, up to -140 before laying up to -3 with Denver.
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