Hammer the Over in Nationals vs. Twins

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Nationals vs. Twins, 2:10 ET

I wrote a paragraph yesterday explaining how baseball games aren’t usually one-run games and the run line is often better value. I even was giving a very small sample size to show that over three days teams were winning by 2+ runs in over 70% of games. Then I picked the Mariners to win their game by two or more… and they won by one run. So, let’s try and reverse that bad luck on this one.

The Nationals are on the verge of sweeping the series against the Twins. You didn’t read that wrong, they have won their past two games and are looking to close this one out against Minnesota. There isn’t really anything that Washington does particularly well – though in fairness, they have a good team batting average (.254) – but for whatever reason they’ve been able to put together two solid outings after they were held scoreless in two games at home against Baltimore. Maybe they just like playing on the road as they have a 5-4 road record. Bad news for them is they have Patrick Corbin pitching today and he essentially is throwing batting practice to opposing hitters. Corbin did have a nice outing in his last one. He covered six innings and allowed four runs, but just two were earned. Can he replicate it for a second game in a row?

The Twins are one of those teams that drive me crazy a bit. They look good for some stretches and then they look bad for others. I’ve seen them play some solid baseball this season, but I’ve also seen them do things like lose two games to the Nationals with some of their better pitching going. I haven’t been a believer in them for quite some time but even I think they should be better than the .500 team they are showing early on in the season. They are getting Bailey Ober back for this game. He is making his 2023 debut for the Twins, so it will be interesting to see how long his leash is in this game. Will he throw 75 pitches? 90? Who knows. I do know he is a solid enough starter, but will likely allow a couple of runs in this game.

There really is only one way to play this game in my estimation and that is to take the over 8.5 runs for the game. I think that Ober will allow runs, and I know Corbin will. If we get into bullpens, both can be hit, even for two teams that aren’t hitting great right now. I’ll take the over.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024

Written by David Troy

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