Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
There’s a full slate of MLB action Tuesday. Since there is nothing to bet on, and I don’t count the Women’s World Cup, I’m getting down on some MLB. My two looks Tuesday are in the Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds and Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals matchups.
MLB Tuesday Tilts
- Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cleveland Guardians (57-62) at Cincinnati Reds (62-58)
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET.
- Venue: Great American Ball Park.
- Series: Tied 0-0.
Neither one of these lineups hit left-handed pitching well. I’d give Cleveland an edge in the starting pitching matchup and the Guardians have much better relief pitching.
Guardians starting LHP Logan Allen (5-5, 3.55 ERA) has a better HR%, strikeout rate, and FIP (“fielding independent pitching”) than Reds starting LHP Graham Ashcraft (6-7, 4.95 ERA). FIP is the most predictive pitching metric.
With that in mind, Cleveland’s bullpen has 4.00 FIP (ranked 10th). Whereas Cincy’s bullpen has a 4.55 FIP (ranked 26th), according to FanGraphs.
Most of the sports betting market is backing the Reds Tuesday because they have more to play for. Per Pregame.com, more than 80% of the action is on Cincinnati’s moneyline (ML) but the line is moving toward Cleveland.
However, the Reds are just 3-7 over their last 10 games and 8-12 in the past 20. So it’s not like Cincy is playing good baseball entering Tuesday.
BET: Guardians -108 ML (up to -120) at DraftKings
Seattle Mariners (63-54) at Kansas City Royals (38-81)
- First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET.
- Venue: Kauffman Stadium.
- Series: Kansas City leads 1-0.
The Mariners have a massive 3-phase edge over the Royals in starting and relief pitching and hitting. Mariners RHP Emerson Hancock (0-0, 1.80 ERA) makes his 2nd-career start. Kansas City counters with RHP Jordan Lyles (3-13, 6.13 ERA).
Hancock is Seattle’s top pitching prospect. The Mariners called up Hancock to help with their playoff push. Lyles is perhaps the worst starting pitcher in MLB. He leads the AL in ER allowed (86) and leads the majors in losses.
Also, Seattle’s bullpen ranks 2nd in FIP (3.62) whereas Kansas City’s bullpen ranks 24th (4.47). The Royals won the series opener Monday 7-6 in extra innings. I.e. both bullpens are taxed so that gives the Mariners a bigger edge since each have less arms to use.
Furthermore, Seattle’s lineup out-ranks KC’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (103-86), wOBA (.313-.300), (.170-.154) and BB/K rate (0.34-0.28), per FanGraphs.
Lastly, the Royals are the best team in MLB to fade on the run line (RL). Kansas City’s RL bet-against return on investment is 10.7%. The next closest team is the New York Mets with a 7.2% bet-against RL ROI.
BET: Mariners -1.5 (+110) RL at DraftKings (down to -105)
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
