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The Cleveland Guardians (69-64) have dominated the AL Central this season and will continue to do so Tuesday vs. the Kansas City Royals (55-81) at Kauffman Stadium.
Cleveland won the series opener 6-5 in extra innings Monday, leads the season series with K.C. 7-4 and has doubled up the Royals in runs scored (70-35).
Furthermore, the Guardians are 20-10 on the run line (RL) vs. the Royals with a plus-33.0% return on investment and a 5.68-3.42 final margin since the beginning of last season. Also, Cleveland is 12-6 RL in visits to K.C. from the start of 2021 with a plus-24.5% ROI and a 5.89-3.67 final margin.
Let’s BET the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS -1.5 (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook because of their massive pitching edge and track record vs. Royals.
Betting Deets (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Guardians (-195), Royals (+165)
- Run Line: GUARDIANS -1.5 (-115), Royals +1.5 (-105)
Guardians Pitching >>> Royals Pitching
The starting pitching matchup in the Guardians-Royals is about as lopsided as it gets. Cleveland sends out ace RHP Shane Bieber (8-8, 3.06 ERA) to face Royals struggling starting LHP Kris Bubic (2-10, 5.47 ERA).
Bieber’s numbers aren’t as strong as his AL Cy Young-winning 2020 campaign. But, Bieber’s FIP (2.85) is lower than his ERA. Bieber also grades in the 84th percentile for whiff rate and three of his five pitches have a minus-6 or better run value (RV), per Statcast.
He has a 34.8% K-rate in 92 plate appearances vs. active Royals batters compared to a 29.7% career K-rate and 25.8% K-rate in 2022. Furthermore, Bieber is 4-2 with a 1.90 ERA over his last seven outings and seven consecutive quality starts.
Conversely, Bubic has been awful lately and has weak stuff. For instance, Bubic has lost four straight starts and has a 7.45 ERA over that span.
Bubic grades in the 15th percentile or worse in whiff rate, hard-hit rate, exit velocity and expected ERA over wOBA, according to Statcast. His 4-seam fastball has a plus-19 RV and opponents have a .598 slugging percentage against Bubic’s fastball.
Go over to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS -1.5 (-115) to smoke the Royals.
- A $115 bet on the Guardians -1.5 (-115) returns a $100 profit if Cleveland wins two or more runs.
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