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I had to take a day off from betting MLB after the New York Mets’ late-inning collapse vs. the Atlanta Braves Thursday. The Mets blew a 10-7 lead entering the 8th inning in a 13-10 extra-inning loss in Atlanta.
My MLB 2023 record fell to 43-40 and my balance is +0.10 units (u). After sulking Friday about New York’s meltdown, I’ve dusted myself and placed two wagers in the …
MLB Saturday Slate
- Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Houston Astros (36-28) at Cleveland Guardians (30-33)
- First pitch: 6:10 p.m. ET.
- Venue: Progressive Field.
- Series: Cleveland leads 1-0.
One of my favorite young pitchers — Guardians RHP Triston McKenzie — in MLB takes the mound Saturday. McKenzie pitched 5-scoreless innings with a 10/1 K/BB rate in Cleveland’s 2-1 victory at the Minnesota Twins Friday.
I’m not the only one who likes McKenzie. Per Pregame.com, more than 70% of the cash in the betting market is on the Guardians at the time of writing. Whereas nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Astros.
Typically, you want to follow the money when it’s counter to the public in sports betting. Professional handicappers wager a lot more dough than the average sports bettor.
Oddsmakers are reacting to the cash column of the betting splits. Cleveland’s moneyline opened at -115 and is all the way up to -140. Also, the Guardians are dialed in at the plate over the last week.
They rank 6th in wRC+, wOBA and WAR, 8th in ISO and 3rd in K% over that span, per FanGraphs. The Astros are behind the Guardians in all those hitting metrics this past week.
MLB Bet #1: 1.4u on Guardians (-140) moneyline at DraftKings
Seattle Mariners (30-32) at Los Angeles Angels (35-30)
- First pitch: 10:07 p.m. ET.
- Venue: Angel Stadium.
- Series: LAA leads 1-0.
The Angels bounced back from an early deficit then held off a late rally in a 5-4 win over the Mariners in their series opener Friday. Shohei Othani gave up 3 ER over 5 innings pitched (IP) but hit a home run and added 2 RBI at the dish.
Mariners RHP Bryan Woo makes his 2nd MLB start. Woo got rocked for 6 ER in just 2 IP in Seattle’s 16-6 loss at the Texas Rangers last Saturday. LHP Patrick Sandoval (3-5, 4.14 ERA) is on the bump for the Mariners Saturday.
Sandoval has pitched well this season against all teams not named the “Astros” or “Yankees.” Both clubs have good relief pitching but the Mariners struggle against lefties. They have lost three straight road games vs. lefty starters.
Seattle’s lineup ranks 23rd in wRC+, 27th in wOBA, 18th in hard-hit rate, and 20th in ISO vs. left-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs. LAA’s lineup is top-10 in MLB for wRC+, wOBA, and ISO.
I like the Angels, but there is suspicious line movement worth addressing. Per VSIN, more than 80% of the action at DraftKings is on LAA but they are getting cheaper. All those bets should make the Angels pricier.
But, the Angels have a 5-game winning streak and are 19-13 at home this year. The Mariners have lost five of six games and 13-17 on the road. These trends and LAA’s lineup gives me confidence in …
MLB Bet #2: 1.3u on Angels (-130) moneyline at DraftKings
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