Grab the Points in Bengals vs. Bills Rematch

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Bengals vs. Bills, 3:00 ET

Quite honestly, I am shocked this game isn’t being played in the late slot. This is one of two games the NFL really wanted to have happen (the other is next week when the winner takes on… the Chiefs – at least that’s what I assume at the time of this writing). This should be a fun game, and if there is a bet on the number of times Damar Hamlin is mentioned or referenced in the game you absolutely need to smash the over.

The Bengals started this season in an absolutely brutal fashion. They lost at home to the Steelers in the opening game of the year with Burrow looking really disconnected from his receivers and toss four interceptions. Then they lost to the Cowboys on the road the following week against a Dak Prescott-less Cowboys team. They ended the season in great fashion though with an eight-game winning streak. They went from 4-4 and everyone panicking about their team to a 12-4 record. Perhaps even more impressive is that they survived a midseason loss of Jamarr Chase. The Bengals now must travel to Buffalo and this game probably comes down to which team turns the ball over less. Cincinnati’s defense has been playing very well lately and Josh Allen is willing to make dumb decisions. Joe Burrow has played really well this year but the Bills defense isn’t an easy squad to face.

The Bills are 13-3 and 7-1 at home. The one home loss this year came at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. That was a game the Bills had in hand and then lost the game. They ended the season on a seven-game winning streak. Their three losses on the season came at a total of 10 points. They’ve only had one win at home that wasn’t by more than six points, so they are clearly comfortable there and have that added edge that is so important. We didn’t see a full game between them and the Bengals but they were losing. It was a road start, so the situation was and is different than what we will get in this one. For the Bills to win the defense has to step up here. We know Allen will score, but can the defense stop Burrow and the Bengals?

This game is really interesting – the two teams matchup so well. Burrow and Allen have virtually the same stats. The running backs, Joe Mixon and Devin Singletary are within five rushing yards of each other. Chase and Stefon Diggs are separated by 400 yards, but keep in mind Chase missed multiple games. The Bills rushing defense is way better, but I think the passing defense is close. In terms of motivation, both teams have the peak motivation to win, but will there be a bit more with “doing it for Damar”?

I have to take the points in this game. You’re giving the Bengals almost a full touchdown here. I actually think Josh Allen is more likely to make a costly turnover than Joe Burrow. I wouldn’t be even a little surprised to see the Bengals advance. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see this game go over the total. It is really possible that we could’ve seen a Ravens vs. Dolphins game because neither team looked great last week in their victories and their opponents had chances to tie or win the game. I think this will be a tight matchup and that’s the main reason to take the points.

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Written by David Troy

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  1. If you consider how these two have performed against mutual opponents Cincinnati has averaged 24 points while Buffalo has averaged 29.2 points. With that edge plus the points the Bills look like a good shot.

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