Good Reason for Low Total in Astros vs. Rays

Astros vs. Rays, 6:40 ET

Yesterday, or the day before, there was a total of 6.5 runs and that was the lowest that I had seen on the season. It wasn’t the first time, it was just that it is the lowest total I’ve seen in a game all season. Now, we have another game with a very low total – it is between the Astros and Rays. This game has a total at just six. Is that a guarantee for an under? Or is that a for sure over, because how can they not get six runs? Let’s take a look.

Most of this total is due to the pitching, obviously. Cristian Javier has been a really good pitcher for the Astros this season. On the campaign, he has a 2.87 ERA, and this month he has been even better. In two starts, he has covered 11.1 innings and allowed just one earned run. Even in August, he started this really strong run – he went 32 innings and allowed just nine earned runs. On the road, he has been a bit more hittable, but it really isn’t that significant outside of his ERA being about a run higher than at home. Tampa hasn’t seen much of Javier, they only have nine at-bats against him and four of them ended in strikeouts. Javier’s numbers the first and second time through a lineup don’t offer much hope for the Rays, either. In the first two times through the lineup, the hitters are batting a minuscule .174 against him.

The Rays were blanked yesterday, but they have been putting up runs in recent games, but were unable to muster anything yesterday. It might be hard to get things going here against Javier, too. The Astros will have their hands full, though. They have to face Shane McClanahan. This season has been nothing short of spectacular for him and the Rays. On the year, he has the second-best ERA in baseball at 2.13. Upon his return from the injured list in his last start, he threw five innings and allowed just three hits. I’m a little concerned about how deep into the game he might go – he only threw 69 pitches in the last game. He might have been on a pitch count, which should be higher in this game. The Astros also haven’t seen McClanahan much outside of Trey Mancini from when he was on the Orioles – he wasn’t good against McClanahan though.

Look, I wouldn’t say that this is a bet for someone that has heart issues. Or that it is a lock or whale play or any other tout term. I am going to play under three runs through five innings in this game. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros win the game and you’re not going to find them at +130 often, so play that if you want. But, I don’t see either team scoring through five innings. Play under 3 at -115.

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Written by David Troy

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