Golden State Will Cover In Must-Win Game 3 Vs. Kings

For the 1st time in the Steve Kerr and Splash Brothers era, the 6-seed Golden State Warriors are in an 0-2 deficit. They host the 3-seed Sacramento Kings for Game 3 in their NBA Western Conference 1st-round playoff series.

Sacramento won a 126-123 nail-biter in Game 1 and then took the second game 114-106 Monday. The Kings are out-performing the Warriors in three of the "four factors" this series.

Kings PG De'Aaron Fox dunks the ball vs. the Warriors during Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. (Jed Jacobsohn/NBAE via Getty Images)

Kings All-Star PG De'Aaron Fox has been the best player through the first two games. Fox is averaging 31.0 points per game (PPG) on the highest usage rate of any player in the series.

Golden State will be without its defensive anchor — Draymond Green — who was suspended after stepping on Kings PF Domantas Sabonis' chest in Game 2. The NBA also cited Green's "history of unsportsmanlike acts" in its official statement.

Kings at Warriors, Game 3 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting odds for the Warriors-Kings Game 3 Thursday from DraftKings Sportsbook.

I'm not going to overthink this. We've seen the Warriors suck on the road and look like a title contender at home all season. Golden State is an NBA-worst 11-31 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season and an NBA-best 27-31-1 ATS at home.

According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Warriors are 28th in non-garbage time defensive rating on the road. But, at home, Golden State is 3rd in adjusted defensive rating.

Warriors' Stephen Curry talks to coach Steve Kerr vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder at Chase Center in San Francisco. (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

The Kings are 3-9 straight up on the road vs. teams in the top-10 of net efficiency. Sactown has a -10.6 adjusted net rating (ranked 24th) and a -3.9 spread differential (23rd) in those games, per CTG.

Also, I agree with Steve Kerr's recap of Game 2 in his post-game presser. Kerr noted that Golden State was only down one with roughly three minutes to play. Warriors-Kings Game 2 was a lot closer than the final score indicates.

However, let's address the Elephant in the Room ...

How will Golden State make do without Draymond Green?

First of all, I'm a big fan of Warriors big Kevon Looney. He's a legit rim-protecting big who does the dirty work and doesn't need plays called for him to stay engaged. Looney is an elite defender who can at least make Sabonis work.

"No Draymond" means more run for Warriors G Gary Payton II. The Kings have a deep backcourt and Payton's tenacious perimeter defense could trouble Fox. Payton has the best defensive rating for Golden State in this series.

Warriors G Gary Payton II contests a Kings' De'Aaron Fox 3-pointer during Game 2 of the Western Conference First Round Playoffs at Golden 1 Center. (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Payton is shooting 69.2% from the field and 40.0% from 3. Looney has a +17 net rating, Payton has a +8 net rating and Green has a -18 net rating through the first two games.

Furthermore, I'm expecting a good game from Warriors combo guard Jordan Poole. In Poole's 14 career playoff games at home, he shot 50% or better from the field in seven of those games.

This is a Pros vs. Joe's game. DraftKings is reporting via VSIN that more money is on the Warriors but more bets are on the Kings. It's usually wise to follow the money when it's counter to the public since sharps place larger wagers.

BET: Warriors -6 (-110) at DraftKings, up to -6.5

The Golden State Warriors' Game 3 spread vs. the Sacramento Kings from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, April 20th at 10 a.m. ET.

Check out Geoff's basketball betting show on the OutKick Bets Podcast feed for the audio versions of the handicaps.