Give Gausman A Shot Over Yankees Tonight

Yankees vs. Blue Jays, 7:07 ET

Will today be the day that Aaron Judge hits homer number 61? With only 10 games left, I actually am a little hesitant to think he breaks the record. Pressure bursts pipes, but it also can throw great hitters off. Judge should break the record, he probably should end up with 63 or 64 homers, but that isn’t what we are here to focus on.

Luis Severino is back for the Yankees after missing all of August. He did have one start already in September and it was pretty good. This was a start against the Pirates when he went five innings and allowed just one earned run. Though he missed time this season, he has done a pretty good job overall and hasn’t had any drastic splits that make you concerned about tonight’s game. However, he has faced Toronto three times this season. His outings have covered just 14.2 innings and he’s allowed three home runs and eight earned runs. While that isn’t terrible, it does result in a 4.91 ERA. His worst of those starts came in Canada and he allowed five earned in five innings.

The Blue Jays currently have a 99.9% chance to make the playoffs. So, if they lose all of these games, it is probably fine. If they win them all, they probably lock up a spot, but not necessarily the first spot in the Wild Card. Kevin Gausman is going for the Blue Jays and he gives them probably the second best chance of any pitcher in the rotation to get a win. The concern here is that he is pitching at home. He has not been very good at Rogers Centre on the year. In 14 starts, he has given up 37 earned runs and allowed nine of his 14 home runs there. He has been very good against the Yankees this season, allowing just two earned runs in 12.2 innings. He did allow 10 hits though, so he has been escaping potential trouble. Both of those games were also in New York.

The Yankees are coming off of a rain-shortened game last night but still played late and had to travel to Canada. I think our best bet here is to take the Blue Jays at -120. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game goes over the 7.5 total, but I’m going to give Gausman one last shot at home.

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Written by David Troy

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