Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
I just don’t feel like the San Diego Padres (3-3) should be +140 ‘dogs at the Atlanta Braves (5-1) on Thursday. Atlanta sends out hard-throwing righty Spencer Strider (1-0, 0.00 ERA) to face San Diego’s lefty ace Blake Snell (0-1, 6.23 ERA).
Listen, the Braves are awesome. I plan on making a lot of money betting them this season. DraftKings Sportsbook priced Strider in the top-10 of odds to win the 2023 NL Cy Young at +950 and I took a piece.
Yet I’ve always liked Snell and he won the 2018 AL Cy Young in the best division in MLB (AL East) while pitching for the Rays. Also, we can fade recency bias with Snell who lost Opening Day.
Snell had a subpar result on Opening Day. However, Snell’s FIP (“Fielding Independent Pitching”) was -0.26 and his BABIP was .545 in that game, per FanGraphs.
Padres Vs. Braves Odds (DraftKings)
- Venue: Truist Park in Atlanta.
- First pitch: 4:20 p.m. ET.
BABIP is a luck-based stat and usually regresses to the mean over the long haul. FIP is a predictive analytic that pro MLB handicappers factor in heavier than ERA until the end of the season.
This point extends to Atlanta’s bullpen, which is 19th in FIP (4.35) but has a 1.99 ERA. San Diego ranks 24th in FIP (4.93) and 27th in ERA (5.95). Clearly neither are good but my point is the Braves’ bullpen ERA is also misleading.
San Diego had a day off Wednesday while Atlanta finished a three-game sweep of the Cardinals in St. Louis. The Padres’ bullpen is well-rested at least and has quality arms.
More importantly, the Padres were 16-5 straight up (SU) after a rest day last season with a +2.6 SU margin. They were 3-0 SU when playing with a rest advantage in 2022 with a +5.3 SU margin as well.
Furthermore, San Diego’s lineup has perhaps the highest ceiling in baseball and hit Atlanta well last year. The Padres were 4-3 overall vs. Atlanta in 2022, winning 5.9-3.9 on average.
Finally, the Padres opened as +120 underdogs and roughly 80% of the action at DraftKings is on the Braves, according to VSIN. So there’s a fade the public angle here.
BET: San Diego’s moneyline (+140) at DraftKings, down to +130
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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