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The San Diego Padres (71-59) held off the San Francisco Giants (61-66) for a 6-5 win in their series opener Monday in Oracle Park. The Giants (+110) look to even the series by starting their ace RHP Logan Webb (11-7, 3.33 ERA) vs. Padres (-135) starting LHP Blake Snell (5-7, 4.24 ERA) Thursday.
Let’s BET the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (+110) as home ‘dogs at DraftKings Sportsbook because sharp money is backing the Giants and betting Webb in San Francisco is easy money.
Sketchy Line Movement
San Diego opened as -135 moneyline (ML) favorites vs. San Francisco Tuesday. But, that number has fallen despite roughly 60% of the action at DraftKings being on the Padres at the time of publishing, per VSIN.
Actually, this is a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario in the betting market because VSIN reports a slight majority of the cash is on the Giants. Typically, the cash column of the betting splits is considered the sharper side of the market since professional bettors drop larger wagers than you or I.
Betting Logan Webb At Home Helps The Bankroll
Webb has been one of the most profitable starters at home over the last two seasons. The Giants are 23-5 straight up (SU) in Webb’s home starts since the beginning of 2021. San Francisco has a plus-32.8% return on investment (ROI) in those spots with an average final margin of 5.50-3.29.
On the other hand, Padres’ backers with Snell on the road as a favorite are losing money. San Diego is 5-7 SU as a road favorite with Snell starting and a minus-32.0% ROI over the last two seasons.
San Francisco’s Lineup >>> San Diego’s Tuesday
The Giants are a lot more productive vs. left-handed pitching than the Padres against righties. For instance, San Francisco has a 112 wRC+ against lefties (ranked 11th), .327 wOBA (11th) and .177 ISO (6th), per FanGraphs.
Furthermore, San Diego’s lineup ranks 13th in wRC+ (101), 15th in wOBA (.309) and 20th in ISO (.147). The Giants score more runs per 9 vs. lefties than the Padres against right-handed pitching (5.17-4.40).
- A $100 bet on the Giants (+110) returns a $110 profit if San Francisco upsets the Padres (-135).
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.