Giants, Rodon Will Beat Overrated Padres At Home Monday

Videos by OutKick

DraftKings Sportsbook‘s price for the San Francisco Giants (-135) vs. the San Diego Padres (+115) is too good to pass up.

San Francisco sends out All-Star ace Carlos Rodon (12-6, 2.81 ERA) to bust a slump. He’ll be facing a San Diego lineup that has been mediocre despite all their star power.

The Giants signing Rodon from the Chicago White Sox is the best pickup in free agency this offseason. Also, the Padres trade deadline acquisition of All-Star slugger Juan Soto is yet to pay dividends.

San Francisco Giants Carlos Rodon pitches against the Detroit Tigers during the 4th inning at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. (Getty Images).

Rodon Is ‘Dealing’

Rodon leads the NL in FIP (2.25) and K/9 (11.5). He’s tied with Toronto Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman for WAR (5.1), per FanGraphs.

Fun Fact: Gausman was the Giants ace last year when they won 107 games and the NL West. Imagine how San Francisco’s rotation looks with Rodon and Gausman starting back-to-back games?

Also, Padres SP Mike Clevinger’s sub-4.00 ERA is misleading. Clevinger’s 4.32 FIP (“Fielding Independent Pitching“) is higher than his ERA (3.59), which indicates Clevinger’s numbers are due for regression.

Clevinger’s expected batting average, wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage slash line is higher than his raw numbers, according to Statcast. Again, this implies Clevinger has been a little lucky this season.

Furthermore, Rodon grades higher than Clevinger in whiff rate, chase rate, expected ERA over OBA per Statcast. Rodon would be in the NL Cy Young discussion if San Francisco had a winning record.

San Diego’s Overrated Lineup

Sure, the Padres have superstars even without suspended All-Star Fernando Tatis Jr. But, the fact of the matter is the Soto trade has markedly improved San Diego’s team batting. San Diego is 10-13 since acquiring Soto Aug. 3 and has scored 4 or fewer runs in nine of those 23 games.

Finally, Rodon mowed down the Padres earlier this year. He threw a complete-game, 1-hitter in San Francisco’s 3-1 victory in San Diego July 9. Rodon struck out 12 Padres, allowing just 1 earned run on 3 hits and 2 walks.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (-135).

  • A $135 wager on the Giants (-135) pays a $100 profit if San Francisco wins outright.

Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.

First-time DraftKings users can get up to a $1,000 deposit bonus and receive a 20% first deposit match up to $1,000 when they sign up. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.

Written by Geoff Clark

Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events.

Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB.

Clark graduated from St. John University.

Leave a Reply