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The New York Yankees (85-56) have struggled over the past month after getting out to a scorching start. N.Y.’s AL East lead has shrunk from a 15.5-game lead in early July to 5.5 games currently.
The Boston Red Sox (69-72) are all but eliminated from playoff contention. Boston is 16 games behind N.Y. in the division and 10 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the final AL wild card seed.
Perennial Cy Young-favorite RHP Gerrit Cole (11-7, 3.20 ERA) is N.Y.’s projected starter whereas Boston starts “bottom-of-the-rotation” guy, RHP Nick Pivetta (9-11, 4.29 ERA).
Head over to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the NEW YORK YANKEES (-165) for the following reasons:
- The Yankees have a 3-phase edge over the Red Sox in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
- Backing Cole in this spot is very profitable.
- Boston performs poorly as home underdogs.
Reasonable Price For Gerrit Cole
If you’re going to give me the YANKEES (-165) and Cole at this price point, I’ll take it. Aside from the home run ball, Cole is pitching up to his contract this season.
Cole leads MLB in strikeouts (218) and is third in xFIP (2.78) among qualified starters, per FanGraphs. Furthermore, Cole’s stuff is as nasty as ever.
Cole grades in the 82nd percentile or better in K%, whiff rate, chase rate, fastball velocity and spin and curveball spin, according to Statcast. While Pivetta is in the 33rd percentile or lower in whiff rate, chase rate, BB%, hard-hit rate, exit velocity (EV) and expected ERA over wOBA.
Moreover, Cole’s K-rate, expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash line and EV are better vs. current Red Sox hitters than Pivetta against active Yankees batters.
Not only that but there are several situational pro-Cole and anti-Boston trends. For instance, Cole’s teams are 24-8 over his career as road favorites price in between -150 and -180 with a +20.4% return on investment (ROI) and a 5.31-2.88 final margin.
Also, the Yankees are 6-3 with a +15.7% ROI and 5.78-4.44 final margin vs. the Red Sox when Cole starts. N.Y. is 18-6 in games with an 8.5-run total or higher in Cole starts.
Finally, the Red Sox are 1-8 as home underdogs vs. right-handed starters this season. Boston has a -73.3% ROI and a -2.0 margin of victory (5.89-3.89) in those contests.
BET the NEW YORK YANKEES (-165) at DraftKings Sportsbook and I’d play N.Y.’s ML all the way up to -180.
- A $165 wager on the Yankees (-165) returns a $100 profit if N.Y. beats Boston outright.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.