Videos by OutKick
This is the 2nd year that the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open is both a DP World Tour and a PGA Tour event. The Scottish Open is a “Rolex Series” tournament, which are premier events on the DP World Tour.
The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland has hosted the Scottish Open since 2019. Tom Doak designed this Par 70 course with “links” characteristics that stretches 7,237 yards. There are three Par 5s, five Par 3s, and 10 Par 4s.
“Links” golf courses are usually built on coastal, sandy soil and are susceptible to windy conditions. The fairways tend to be firmer, faster, and have a lot of run out. Links courses have deep pot bunkers and thick fescue rough.
Previous Scottish Open winners (odds via GolfOdds.com)
- 2022: Xander Schauffele -7 (+1800) by one stroke over K. Kitayama.
- 2021: Min Woo Lee -18 (+10000) in a playoff vs. M. Fitzpatrick and T. Detry.
- 2020: Aaron Rai -11 (+5000) in playoff vs. T. Fleetwood.
- 2019: Bernd Wiesberger -22 (+4000) in a playoff vs. Benjamin Hébert.
- The average winning score of the past four Scottish Opens is 14.5-under par and +5200 odds.
After turning a slight profit two weeks ago, the 2023 John Deere Classic was a disaster for me. I sank -8.15 units (u) on the John Deere to drop my PGA Tour 2022-23 balance to -27.6u.
Four of the five golfers I backed the past weekend had a chance at cashing bets for me entering the final round Sunday. The recap of my John Deere is at the bottom of this post.
My plan of attack for PGA Tour events moving forward is to win 20u for any successful outright bet. Believe it or not, I’ve hit five outright tickets this season. It feels like I’m doing something wrong being down 26.7u.
(Word for the wise: When making placement bets, look for sportsbooks that don’t apply “dead-heat” rules. And always shop around for the best odds.)
2023 Genesis Scottish Open ‘Starting 5’
- All stats courtesy of FantasyNational.com unless otherwise noted.
He’s played well this season on Tour but Spieth is yet to get a victory. Spieth has six T6 finishes or better this season including a T5 at the Memorial and T4’s at both the Masters and the Arnold Palmer.
Since becoming the 2017 Champion Golfer of the Year, Spieth has finished T20 or better in the last four Open Championships (2020 was canceled) and inside the top-10 in three of those starts. Plus, Spieth finished T10 in the 2022 Scottish Open.
Hence he has legit “win equity” on links-style courses and Spieth leads the field in total SG at comp courses to The Renaissance Club. Also, Spieth’s 2015 U.S. Open was at a British-links course, Chambers Bay.
The Renaissance Club, and all links courses for that matter, tend to reward creative golfers. Spieth is perhaps the most creative golfer in the world. Albeit out of necessity.
Often Spieth will be errant OTT but he usually ends up at least saving par if not getting on the green in regulation. Spieth’s game fits the UK-Swing to be a contender at this week’s Scottish Open and 2023 Open Championship.
1st Scottish Open roster spot: Jordan Spieth
- 0.8u on WIN: +2500 (DraftKings)
- 0.7u on TOP-10: +200
This would be a great way for Fleetwood to break his PGA Tour maiden. The Scottish Open is a co-sanctioned DP and PGA Tour event and Fleetwood is a 6-time DP World/European Tour winner.
Fleetwood is probably the best player on the PGA Tour that’s currently winless. He is 7th in total SG on Tour this season. Fleetwood is good throughout the bag and is gaining strokes in the five most important golf stats for his career.
He finished T4 at last year’s Scottish Open and lost in a playoff vs. Aaron Rai in 2020. In the 2022 Scottish Open, Fleetwood picked up strokes in the five most important golf stats and ranked 4th OTT, per DataGolf.com.
Fleetwood is 3rd in total SG at the comp courses used, 5th in total SG in windy weather conditions, and 8th in total SG over the last 24 rounds. The Renaissance Club is along the Scottish coastline and wind is usually a factor at links courses.
Lastly, Fleetwood ranks 9th in my key stat model for the 2023 Scottish Open over the last 36 rounds. He is 15th in SG: OTT, 18th in SG: APP, 11th in SG: BS, and 4th in Scrambling during this stretch.
2nd Scottish Open roster spot: Tommy Fleetwood
- 1u on WIN: +2000
- 0.25u on TOP-5: +450
Clark has the 12th-best odds to win the Scottish Open at DraftKings Sportsbook but 7th on my power rankings. The 2023 U.S. Open champion was 3rd in SG: T2G at last year’s Scottish Open.
However, Clark struggled on The Renaissance Club greens. He was 62nd in SG: Putting out of 72 golfers that made the 2022 Scottish Open cut. This season on Tour, Clark is 37th for SG: Putting and 4th over the last 36 rounds.
Clark has two wins in his last five starts: 2023 U.S. Open and the Wells Fargo Championship. He has gained a combined 14.8 strokes on the greens in those two events. Clark is +4.0 SG: Putting per tourney in his last five starts.
He is 5th in my key stat model over the last 24 rounds and 6th in total SG during that stretch. There are five Par 3s at The Renaissance Club and Clark is 3rd in this field for Par 3 scoring over the last 36 rounds.
Power hitters have an edge here because of the reachable Par 5s, and long Par 4s. Clark is 8th in driving distance this season on Tour and 5th in club head speed.
Finally, there are five Par 4s within 450-500 yards at The Renaissance Club. Clark is 9th in Par 4 scoring in that range over the last 36 rounds.
3rd Scottish Open roster spot: Wyndham Clark
- 0.45u on WIN: +4500
- 0.8u on TOP-20: +180
Rose is 12th in total SG on Tour this season, won the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Open and is in great form. He is 10th in this field for total SG over the last 24 rounds.
Before missing the cut at the 2023 U.S. Open, Rose was T8 at this year’s RBC Canadian Open, T12 at the Charles Schwab, and T9 at the PGA Championship in his previous three starts.
Granted, Rose finished T69 at last year’s Scottish Open and struggled on the weekend. But, I’m willing to give Rose a mulligan because he’s having a bounce-back performance this season.
Despite the poor finish to the 2022 Scottish Open, Rose’s game fits this course. Over the last 36 rounds, Rose is 4th in this field for SG: APP and 5th in Proximity on APP shots from 200+ yards out.
Also, there are eight combined Par 4s from 400-500 yards at The Renaissance Club. Rose is 6th in Par 4 Efficiency (EFF): 400-450 yards and 9th in Par 4 EFF: 450-500 yards over the last 36 rounds.
Doak, who designed The Renaissance Club, renovated the greens at St. George’s Golf and Country Club in Toronto, which hosted the 2022 RBC Canadian Open.
I bring St. George’s up is because Rose finished T4 at the 2022 RBC Canadian Open and shot a final round 60. Rose gained 8.7 strokes putting that week at St. George’s.
I wrote Rose’s handicap for the 2023 Scottish Open before the odds came out. I told myself “If Rose is +4000 or higher, I’m betting him.” This is a stacked field but Rose is 8th in my 2023 Scottish Open power rankings so we are getting a good price here.
4th Scottish Open roster spot: Justin Rose
- 0.45u on WIN: +4500 (DraftKings)
- 0.8u on TOP-20: +160
Putnam’s lack of length OTT holds him back on the PGA Tour. Over the last 24 rounds, He is 147th in this Scottish Open field in driving distance. But, links courses typically have harder fairways that give a lot of drives rollouts.
Over the last 24 rounds, Putnam is 7th in driving accuracy and 18th in Good Drives Gained, which blends accuracy with distance. Putnam can make up for his lack of distance by hitting the fairways at The Renaissance Club.
Regardless of being short OTT, Putnam is putting together a nice little season on Tour. Putnam is nasty on the greens and sneaky good with his irons.
He is 7th in Tour this season in SG: Putting and 34th in SG: APP. Putnam has three top-10 finishes in this wraparound season at the Zozo, Sony Open, and the Memorial.
Links courses put a premium on putting and this course is no different. Twelve of the 15 golfers that finished inside the top-10 of the 2022 Scottish Open picked up strokes putting. Putnam is +3.2 SG: Putting over his last five starts.
Deep sand traps are another trait of links-style courses. Putnam is 9th in Sand Save rate and 16th in Scrambling on Tour this season. All I’m saying is there’s a world where Putnam contends at the 2023 Scottish Open.
5th Scottish Open roster spot: Andrew Putnam
- 0.12u on WIN: +18000 (DraftKings)
- 0.38u on TOP-20: +333
2023 John Deere Classic Bet Slip: -8.15u
- Denny McCarthy, T6: -1.5u
- WIN & Top-5 ❌
- Chris Kirk, T21: -1.25u
- WIN & Top-20 ❌
- Akshay Bhatia, T35: -0.7u
- WIN & Top-20 ❌
- Eric Cole, T42: -1.25u
- WIN & Top-20 ❌
- Emiliano Grillo, missed cut: -1.25u
- WIN & Top-20 ❌
- Taylor Moore (-1.2u) > Keith Mitchell ❌
- Doug Ghim (-1u) > Ludvig Åberg ❌
- Michael Kim > Sam Stevens 🔪
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.