Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
Apparently, the NBA is load managing Saturday, only scheduling two games. If I wasn’t already betting golf, the Final Four and MLB, I wouldn’t was my time. Since I’m here anyways, I found a couple of bets in Mavericks-Heat.
Dallas Mavericks (40-37) at Miami Heat (37-40), 7:30 p.m. ET
The public is betting OVER 225.5 (-110) in this game while the pros are hitting the UNDER. Or at least that’s what the betting splits say for DraftKings Sportsbook (per VSIN).
Generally speaking, the OVER in Mavs games makes more sense since they cannot stop a nosebleed but have two dynamic scorers. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving get buckets but so should Heat PG Gabe Vincent and Tyler Herro.
But, the 1st Mavericks-Heat meeting was total’d at 218.5. Dallas smacked Miami 115-90 and the Under cashed by 13.5 points. There’s been too much movement off of that number based on Kyrie’s presence. And the sharps know it too.
Over the past two weeks, Miami ranks 24th in offensive rating and is playing at the slowest pace in the NBA. Dallas is 22nd in pace over that span and has scored 109 or fewer points in four of the last six games.
The Heat rely on turning defense into offense by getting easy buckets off of turnovers. The problem with that is the Mavericks don’t turn the ball over.
Miami gives up few wide-open 3-pointers and ranks 2nd in paint points per game (PPG) allowed. Both are good defensive rebounding teams and neither crash the glass on offense. There could be a lot of one-and-done possessions.
Bet: UNDER 225.5 (-110) in Mavericks-Heat at DraftKings Sportsbook
PS Player Prop: Miami PG Gabe Vincent 8.5 points
- OVER 8.5: -120
- Under 8.5 -110
Okay, I know it’s weird to give out a player prop Over and bet the game’s Under. It’s a tight window to squeeze through.
But, Miami’s injury report should equal more usage for Vincent and he’ll either be defended by Luka or Kyrie. Heat PG Kyle Lowry is “questionable,” which would make Vincent the starter.
He scored 10 points off the bench vs. the Mavs earlier this season. Vincent averages 11.1 PPG as a starter and has scored at least 9 points in 16 of 28 starts this season.
Vincent is a good spot-up shooter and the ball is going to be in Herro and Jimmy Butler‘s hands a lot. Both are willing passers and Vincent should get some decent looks.
BET: Miami PG Gabe Vincent OVER 8.5 points (-120)
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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