Videos by OutKick
The 2022 World Series is in the City of Brotherly Love Tuesday where the Philadelphia Phillies (1-1) host the Houston Astros (1-1) at Citizens Bank Park with the first pitch set for 8:03 p.m. ET.
- Game 3 was originally scheduled for Monday but was rained out.
Houston tied the World Series up with a 5-2 Game 2 win Saturday. Philadelphia fell into a 3-0 hole after the 1st inning when Houston’s first three batters hit 3 doubles off Phillies starting RHP Zack Wheeler‘s first 4 pitches.
Astros starting LHP Framber Valdez prevented any Phillies comeback attempt in his 6 1/3 IP gem, allowing just 1 ER on 4 H and 3 BB with 9 K.
Houston’s Game 3 starter, RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (4-2, 2.27 ERA), lost to Philly 3-0 in game #160 of the regular season. McCullers did give the Astros a quality start with 6 IP, 1 ER, 1 HR, 6 H, 1 BB, and 5 K.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
- Moneyline (ML): ASTROS (-125), Phillies (+105)
- Run Line (RL): Astros -1.5 (+135), Phillies +1.5 (-155)
- Total (O/U) — 8 — O: +100, U: -120
McCullers is 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA, a 13/3 K/BB rate, and 0 HR in 11 IP over two starts in the ALDS and ALCS. Both of which Houston won.
He started two games in the 2017 World Series vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers including Houston’s Game 7 series-clinching victory. McCullers allowed 3 ER on 7 H, 4 BB, and 0 HR with 6 K in 7 2/3 IP.
Philadelphia’s original Game 3 starter was RHP Noah Syndergaard before the rainout but now the Phillies are sending LHP Ranger Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA) to the mound Tuesday.
Suarez is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in the 2022 postseason and Philly has won all four games Suarez has pitched in. He had a series-clinching save vs. the San Diego Padres in Game 5 of the NLCS and the Phillies used Suarez in relief during their Game 1 extra-inning victory.
The Astros drilled Suarez in the second-to-last game of the regular season. Suarez allowed 6 ER on 7 H, 3 HR, and 2 BB with 2 K over just 3 IP in Houston’s 10-0 win on October 4.
Furthermore, the Astros are 16-5 straight up (SU) as road favorites vs. lefty starters this season and 11-1 SU as favorites of -140 or less against left-handed starters.
Houston’s lineup ranked 2nd vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+, 3rd in both wOBA and ISO, and 1st in both hard-hit rate and BB/K rate during the regular season, per FanGraphs.
Houstons has better relief pitching
The Phillies need Suarez to go deep in Game 3 because Houston’s bullpen is way deeper than Philly’s. The Astros have a better postseason ERA (2.65-0.89), WHIP (1.06-0.81), and opponent’s batting average (.204-.138) than the Phillies.
Also, Houston’s bullpen had the lowest ERA (2.90) and the best left-on-base rate (LOB%) in baseball (76.8%) during the regular season. While Philadelphia was 23rd in ERA (4.27) and 24th in LOB% (70.0%), according to FanGraphs.
‘Pros (Astros) vs. Joe’s (Phillies) Game’
There was a discrepancy in Game 3’s betting market between the professional bettors and the public Monday, which continues Tuesday with the updated starting pitching matchup.
Per VSIN, around three-fourths of the money is on the Astros. Whereas a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Phillies. Typically, you want to follow the money when it’s counter to the public because the cash column is considered the sharper side of the betting splits.
The best argument for the Phillies winning Game 3 is the Zig-Zag Theory. This is when someone backs the team that just lost since it’s hard to beat the same team in back-to-back games in professional sports.
But, the sharp money says the Astros take a 2-1 lead in the World Series.
BET: Astros (-125) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -140
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.