Utah State vs. BYU, 8 ET
I’m here to give you a surefire winner. BYU at -4000. Lock it in now and go to the betting window. Just kidding. There are some days when I look at a game see lines like that and wonder who is actually taking that. If you have $4,000 to bet, you’re doing that just to win $100? Do they just put them in parlays? I really have no idea and this isn’t even likely to be the highest moneyline bet. Let’s take a look at a better option for this game.
Utah State is not a very good team, but they’ve also had a somewhat difficult schedule. They opened their season with a win at home over Connecticut. It was pretty convincing as Logan Bonner was able to throw three touchdowns in the game and outside of the first quarter, their defense was in a really nice spot. Since then, in three games, they have only scored 31 points – their total output in that win against Connecticut. Clearly, their offense has stalled out – Bonner has only three additional touchdowns and now has eight interceptions on the season. On defense, they have seen a dip in production as well. Throw out the Alabama game, we knew that was going to be a loss, but losing at home to Weber State and UNLV and allowing opposing running backs to get basically whatever they wanted is an issue. They aren’t excelling in any area.
BYU has played well with the exception of a loss to #25 Oregon. Now ranked 19th in the country, BYU should easily win this game, as the -4000 line suggests. I personally have loved the way that Jalen Hall looks guiding this team this year. On the season, he has 1,164 yards and nine touchdowns. He is spreading it to multiple different receivers as well, with seven receivers securing a touchdown reception already (one of those was a trick play pass from a receiver). They have a really balanced offense that is running at the right time and passing well. On defense, they have held most teams to 24 or fewer points. I’d argue that all four teams they’ve played are better than this Utah State team, too.
BYU is clearly the better team, but Utah State also doesn’t just roll over and die. While this game might not be close, Utah State is probably the right side as I could see a backdoor cover for them. I won’t play it that way. Instead, I’ll play BYU -14 in the first half. They haven’t looked great in the first half in three of the four games, but I think they come out and take care of business before somewhat coasting through the rest of it.
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