Phillies vs. Astros, Game 2, 8:03 ET
Game one has come and gone. The Phillies took it in a big comeback victory – a theme for them in the playoffs and I was incorrect on the total for that one. I am looking at this one with a different perspective and think we still have a good chance at a play in this. Game 2 is obviously important for Astros as you don’t want to go down 0-2 in any series, but definitely the World Series.
Zack Wheeler is taking the ball for the Phillies. He probably was their best pitcher for the season and produced a 2.82 ERA. I do have one concern that is slightly balanced out by another split. In his away starts, he has a 3.84 ERA which doesn’t bode well for this game. However, during his night starts he has a 2.05 ERA. Based on that, he is probably going to allow one or two earned runs in the game. This will be his fifth start in the postseason and he’s alternated scoreless starts with starts that are quality, but he allowed runs. In his most recent, he allowed just two earned runs over six innings against the Padres in their clinching game. The only game that the Phillies have lost in the playoffs when he started was against the Braves in a 3-0 loss. He might have an advantage as Astros hitters have never really seen him. The three hitters that have seen him are just 1-for-10 against Wheeler.
Framber Valdez is a guy that I’ve written quite a bit about on the season. He’s been outstanding for the Astros. Like Wheeler, Valdez produced a 2.82 ERA for the season. However, Valdez turned in a lot more innings and quality start after quality start. He has had two postseason starts and has only allowed two earned runs in the 12.2 innings that he’s thrown. He has allowed two runs and four hits in both games, but they were both wins from the Yankees and Mariners. Valdez did have a start against the Phillies and was solid – he went five innings, allowed just two hits, and no earned runs. Phillies hitters have seen him more than Astros hitters have seen Wheeler, though. In 36 at-bats, he’s allowed just five hits and two RBIs.
If we are being honest here, Valdez has made me a ton of money on the year. That makes it very hard for me to go against him. However, I think Wheeler probably has the edge in this one. If we are going to talk about who is more likely to allow runs it is Valdez. I’m playing the Phillies through five innings at +105.
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