First Five Play in deGrom vs. Fried

Mets vs. Braves 7:20 ET

This is one of the few series that actually matter. The Braves are a game back of the Mets, and now get a chance to take the division if they can steal this series away from them. There are still a few games after this so unless the Mets sweep the series, the winner won’t be crowned in this series, but both would benefit from the division so it is important.

You’re not going to find a much better pitching matchup than this. You get Jacob deGrom going for the Mets. Do I really need to spell out for everyone how good this guy is? Perhaps it will help a bit. His most recent start against the Athletics was his worst of the season so he will be looking to rebound. In that start, he allowed five earned runs over just four innings. In fact, he allowed three earned runs to both the Cubs and Pirates in those two starts too. That’s three bad, well, not bad, but un-deGrom-like starts in a row. Atlanta isn’t, and shouldn’t be exactly intimidated by him. They have had a bit of success already against him. In his first start against them, they were able to get two runs off of him in 5.2 innings. That was a Mets win. Then in the second one, a road start, the Braves scored three off of him in 6.2 innings. The Braves took that game.

On the other side of the diamond is Max Fried. He has been awesome this season and can put one last stamp on the season with a beating of deGrom and the Mets. He hasn’t had any bad splits on the year but is the slightest bit better at home, which is more impressive because he has five more starts at home and has only allowed six more earned runs at home in 25 more innings. This will be his fifth start against the Mets this year. On the season, he has allowed eight earned runs in 24 innings. He actually hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of those starts on the year.

This is going to be a really tight matchup and that is highlighted by the total of 6.5 runs. I actually saw it as low as six before. At six, I’d play the over. I don’t think I’ll touch the total in this one now. I will play the Braves through five innings at +115. This gives us a push option, which is always nice, and it is at the same cost as the full game so I like the option here.

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Written by David Troy

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