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My MLB 2023 betting experience continues to be a roller coaster ride. After hitting both MLB bets Monday, I lost both Tuesday, which resulted in me passing on Wednesday’s action. I’m now 47-48 on the season with a -4.95 unit (u) balance.
Even though Thursday’s MLB slate is sparse, I’m going to hop back on the horse and ride out on a couple of games. Let’s look at both the home favorites for the Pittsburgh Pirates versus Miami Marlins and Seattle Mariners at the New York Yankees.
MLB Thursday Tilts
- Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pittsburgh Pirates (34-39) at Miami Marlins (42-33)
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: loanDepot park.
The Pirates visit the Marlins for the start of a 4-game series Thursday and Pittsburgh is currently on a 9-game losing skid. Miami is 6-4 over the last 10 games and 14-6 over the last 20 but lost back-to-back to the Blue Jays on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Marlins give young LHP Braxton Garrett (3-2, 3.88 ERA) the ball Thursday. While the Pirates turn to ace RHP Mitch Keller (8-3, 3.62 ERA) for the series opener. From a basic and advanced stats standpoint, these starters cancel each other out.
However, Garrett dominated Pittsburgh’s lineup in their two meetings last season. Garrett was 1-0 in those contests with just 1 ER allowed on 4 H and 1 HR with a 18/3 K/BB rate over 12 IP.
Also, the Pirates are struggling at the dish lately. Over the last seven days, Pittsburgh’s lineup is dead-last in the MLB for WAR, wRC+, and wOBA by a wide margin, per FanGraphs. The next closest team to the Pirates’ -1.3 WAR is the Dodgers at -0.4.
Eight of Pittsburgh’s losses during its active 9-game losing streak have been by at least three runs. Finally, the Pirates’ relief pitching is suspect. Pittsburgh’s bullpen ranks 24th in both WAR and FIP and 25th in K-BB%, according to FanGraphs.
BET 1u on Pirates -1.5 (+135) at DraftKings
Seattle Mariners (35-37) at New York Yankees (41-33)
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Yankee Stadium.
- Series: The Yankees lead 2-1.
NYY looks to complete a 3-game sweep of Seattle Thursday. RHP Domingo German (4-4, 4.30 ERA) takes the bump for the Yankees. The Mariners give rookie, and highly-touted prospect, RHP Bryan Woo (0-1, 7.30 ERA) the start.
As a Yankees fan, I think German is a bit underrated. He pitches much better at home than on the road. German has a 3.57 home FIP (5.87 road FIP), 21.8% home K-BB% (7.9% home K-BB%), and a 0.84 home WHIP (1.38 road WHIP).
Both lineups have struggled over the past week but the Mariners have been worse at the plate. During that stretch, Seattle’s lineup ranks 27th in WAR (-0.1) and 29th in both wRC+ (64) and wOBA (.254), per FanGraphs.
The reverse line movement is suspicious. Seattle opened up as an underdog and are now a slight favorite in Yankee Stadium. A place that the Mariners are just 4-14 in their last 18 visits.
But, since I cannot reverse engineer the line movement, I’ll take the discount for the Yankees.
BET 1.05u on Yankees (-105) at DraftKings
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